DonaldHarris

6 DAYS! 

I can't contain my excitement.  Breeders Cup in my backyard!  I am looking forward to the mad house and I'm hoping along the way I might find something of value to pass along during race day. I think I'm going to drag my Dad's old football helmet and shoulder pads out of storage so I can handle the physical confrontations sure to take place when attempting to find a strategic place to observe these horses down by the paddock.  What I lack for in size I will make up for in cheap shots.  Beware!

Zenyatta turned in her final prep at Hollywood Park this morning.  Everything went according to plan.  She used Bronzino (poor guy) as target practice again.  Broke one length off, fell about five lengths behind by the time they hit the quarter pole, floated very wide, unleashed that cartoonish stride and went about her business.  Head in front at the wire and quickly clear running out.  The gallop out was a playful, energetic type and it tells us that Zenyatta has never been better.  Scary thought.

Oh ya.  I guess I have to update how I did in the final day of that stupid tournament.  Think of a word that rhymes with hero and that is how many winners I came up with on the final day.  Talk about going in the tank.  It's a good thing I am a professional and I know how to handle disappoint in this game.  I hit the tables hard and was doubling down like like a champ. 

The stock market continues to act like a manic-depressive.  Exploding for 900 one day and giving it all back on another.  Historical stuff.  For those that are paying attention to daily market madness, it  is better than any class you could ever take. 

 Check back in later. 

13 days! 

First race of the tournament was at Belmont.  Through my brilliant deciphering of the form I came up with a huge overlay by the name of Discover Launch.  This monster stalked the pace and drew away like an even money shot.  Damn this game is easy.  Win price of $71.50.  I was off and running.  11 plays later I was at the same place I was after the first race at Belmont.  I hate these tournaments!  I'm never coming again!

Today I was unable to mount a serious charge.  I had the misfortune of watching my second play of the day, Cornwhiskey at Keeneland, come up a head short at 25-1.  From there I managed too fall into a couple of modest priced winners that put me in a position of trailing by lots going into the last day.  Looking back at the last couple of days I realize how lucky I have been to only have one tough beat.  I guarantee there are those out there right now that have at least 5 horrific stories of big priced horses that should have won but lost for a long list of reasons.  My only tough beat was a horse that was given a perfect ride and came up short.  The rest of my plays were simply horses that were too slow.  Easy to live with picking bad horses.  Hard to live with picking the right horses and still coming up short. 

There is still one more day left.  I plan on sweeping my 12 plays with an average win price of $20.  If I do that I think I'll sneak into 250th place.  I don't think that is too much to ask. 

Till next time . .

15 days!

I'm excited to say I am composing this blog from my hotel room at 'The Orleans' in Las Vegas.  Tomorrow is the start of a three day 'win only' handicapping tournament called the "Fall Classic".  For those of you that have not had the opportunity to participate in one of these crazy multi day tournaments I encourage you to make plans with some handicapping buddies and take a trip.  It is a horseplayers dream/nightmare.  Vegas, big money, bad beats, good food, annoying personalities, and engaging personalities.  All of which lead to a pocketful of horseplayer stories you can tell over a few beers with family and friends.  Like any trip to Vegas the feelings preceding the event are on the optimistic side.  Dreams of big priced winners dance around our heads.  By the end of the weekend the majority of us are left with shattered fantasies and a bank balance that mirrors Lehman Brothers. 

I am by no means an experienced tournament player.  But in my several trips to Vegas for these handicapping challenges I have learned there are a few absolute certainties.  I would like to impart my knowledge free of charge. (1) Every player is guaranteed to say "I should of", "I could of", and "I would of" on multiple occasions.  I should of played that speed horse in New York.  I could of had that horse if you were not distracting me.  I would of played that horse but that 3rd ice cream sandwich made my stomach upset and I had to run to the bathroom.  (2) Unless you come with a crew big enough to reserve an entire table you are guaranteed to be stuck with a couple registered in the tournament that knows as much about horses as the American consumer knows about saving.  It is inevitable that in the midst of a poor streak of losers for yourself, this couple will hit three huge prices in a row based on nothing more than lucky numbers.  Some will laugh it off and others will be forced to migrate.  (3)  There will be a violent race to the ice cream freezer everyday around 3pm when the desserts are delivered.  Players will forget they are human and race to those refrigerators like ravenous wolves that have not had food in  weeks.  Watch for flying elbows! Dangerous stuff.  (4)  After the tournament is over and you have finished 250th out of 300.  You and your group will get together, do some complicated math, and come to the conclusion that you should have finished 10th, if not for this one horse. 

Good luck to all the players.  Please say hello if you see me in the trenches. 

Will check back in tomorrow to give an update on Day 1. 

21 days!  Anybody paying attention to the equity markets of late have witnessed some significant events go down the last couple of months.  Lending standards have gotten so tight Bill Gates had one of his credit cards declined.  Who could have ever guessed that allowing families with a 50 credit rating put $5000 down on a $550,000 home would lead to problems.  The mess unfolded with exquisite timing for the debate season.  Let the finger pointing begin!  On September 29 the Dow vomited all over the place after the rescue mission was put on hold.  I read a lot of articles discussing the feelings on that day.  Fear and greed were the two words that popped up a lot.  I'm sure 1987 scoffs at that.  Since I became an active observer of the markets back in high school I began noticing a rather large dichotomy between the alleged outdated investment principles of a Warren Buffett and my next door neighbors thesis on buying and selling stocks online like he was playing some sort of slot machine.  The slot machine mentality sure was a sexier option compared with the monotonous theory of buying good businesses and having to wait for a return over a period as long as 10 years!  Our culture has a Starbucks mentality.  We want lots of options and we want it fast.  Like many market forces, sometimes it takes awhile for the insanity to be washed out.  Eventually, rational thought will win.  Smart people that have looked ahead and structured some sort of plan for the future  have the ability to take advantage.  Take a look at what Buffet has done in the last few days.  This subject of fear and greed can be translated to any industry.  Take a look at the Cubs playing the Dodgers.  Would you say the Cubs are playing free and loose?  Sarah Palin and her confusing interview with Katie Couric.  By no means do I think Palin is stupid.  I think she simply got nervous like any athlete would before a big game.  That silly Frenchman, Jean Van de Velde.  He played brilliant golf for 99% of a tournament before literally losing his mind on the last hole.  Still one of the most painful things I have ever seen in sports.  What does this have to do with the BC?  When I am poring over the form, I want to see the route that these horses took to get to the big day.  Is the road a confusing pattern of zig zags where it appears the connections had no clue what they were trying to do or does there appear to have been a rational road map that was laid out at the beginning of the campaign.  Who is here by accident and who is here because a goal was set and a plan laid out?  Don't get thrown off by a seemingly dull last effort.  Don't' get thrown off by the popular names.  The BC will usually provide a big price or two.  Let the fun begin!

Till tomorrow .  

22 days!  Been reading a lot about the most memorable BC races and I have to chime in.  In 1991 I saw a race that I will never forget.  I still get goose bumps when thinking about the race.  I was only 12 at the time but my enthusiasm for the game was hitting a new high every time out to the track. Back then I was an information junkie.  I listened to everybody.  When I say everybody, I mean everybody.  I'd ask the program seller, the security guard, the alcoholic who sounded like he was speaking a foreign language until he said the horses name.  No information was bad information.  Conversation was a big part of why going to the races was so fun.  The back and forth between fellow horseplayers.  Anyways, in 1991 Bertrando was the west coast hopeful in the juvenile.  He was fast.  Very fast.  I recall looking up at the board and seeing some horse at a low number.  Some Paulson horse by the name of Arazi.  Early on in the race Arazi was jumping around in the back of the pack like a confused bunny.  Those dirt clods were not appreciated.  Then it happened.  The confused bunny turned into the road runner.  The little Ch. colt went "bee beep" and swamped the field in what seemed like an angry tirade.  It was surreal.  Somebody had tied a tractor to Bertrando's back.  Arazi bounced clear in an instant.  My friend started pounding on the table with both fists in what he later called an involuntary reflex as he yelled "He is a monster, he is a monster!"  I stood starting at the T.V. in a confused state.  Questioning what I had just seen.  That is the beauty of sport.  Literally takes your breath away.  Taking in those moments is what it is all about. 

Rave - Kentucky Derby is on my "things to do" list. 

Check back in manana.