DonaldHarris

Race #6 Maiden Special Weight - Saturday, August 16

Breaking down a baby race as a clocker is a lot of fun.  It's where all those early mornings are supposed to help make sense out of a race that on paper leaves a lot of guess work. 

MOTU NUI - Toyed with a work-mate on July 31st in a drill from the blocks.  I don't have a strong opinion of the work-mate.  On the average side working six furlongs in company on August 6th.  Both drills were in blinkers.  Interesting to note Bejarano gets on board.  Pedigree note:  The mare of 'MOTU is Isla Mujeres. 'Mujeres did not come from much of a family line.  BUT, as a producer she has proved useful.  Four have raced.  All four winners.  Two stakes placed {Shapes and Shadows, Mystery Island} and one stakes winner {Isla Cozzene}.  

G'S HEAVENLY UNION - Strong effort in debut.  Broke from the rail. Took back and made a nice rally down the lane in traffic.  Ability evident.  Her last morning drill of this current sequence was a move where she finished best in company over older work-mate Tuner.  Tuner is a one paced grinder so 'G'S did what she should have done.  No question in my mind this filly deserves a lot of respect in this spot.

LU BATON - Has simply not shown enough in the a.m. to get my respect.  Adds the blinkers so she may show extra speed which could influence the pace situation.  Pace presence at the most.

TELLING STORIES - Last drill I saw from her was back at Hollywood on July 7th.  At that point she still had a lot more work to do.  She has had five works since so I do have to leave the possibility for improvement.  With that said - not on my ticket.

PALACIO DE AMOR - Totally outran what I thought she was capable of in her debut.  Gutty effort to finsih fourth at 26-1.  I still don't like her on the win end today but I have to respect her chances to sneak into the exotics picture.

COCO M -  Saw this filly work one time.  It was a gate drill on August 8th.  She was let run on a loose rein.  She struck me as an honest filly with room to grow.  Pedigree note - The dam Glitters was two for two as a two year old.  She was stakes placed and earned over $240K lifetime.  'COCO is a half to stakes winner Deputy Glitters.  'Deputy earned over $425K liftetime.

CASINO GOLD - Her final drill of the series was from the gate.  She worked in company with the blinkers on.  The final clocking was solid and she did it well in hand while heads up with a decent work-mate.  Deserves respect.  Productive series.

OUR GIRL KINZIE - Her key drill was on August 1st from the gate.  Tyler was in the irons and the blinkers were on.  She proved best of a team while showing some early lick.  I see the lower portion of the exotics as her top possibility.  Tyler goes to another horse.

WATSNEWPUSSYKAT - The horse Tyler chooses.  This is the filly I feel will get the job done today.  First caught my attention at Hollywood Park during a schooling lesson from the blocks.  Flashed a real stride.  The next time I saw her was on July 14th in her first drill over the Poly.  The time was nothing special but her gallop out was something I could not ignore.  She was still early on in her training and she was galloping out with serious run.  Quality evident.  Her next few drills all fell into line.  Working in company a couple of times and handling that the right way.  My lone concern is that she has become a little head strong.  She actually ran off one morning when Tyler lost his footing in the irons.  But I figure at 5.5 furlongs that aggressive nature is not as concerning as it will be when she starts to go longer distances.  All in all I simply think she is the most talented filly in the race. 

BOTTOM LINE:  I expect WATSNEWPUSSYKAT to win.  I'm looking at this race the same way I looked at Montana Fields before her debut.  'Montana ended up getting nailed by a couple of closers in her debut before righting the ship with a nice win in her second start.  Would like to see WATSNEWPUSSYKAT stamp herself as a stakes quality presence.

SUNDAY AUGUST 3RD - RACE #6
By far the best two year old race of the meet on paper.  We'll see if it lives up to what I expect.  Loads of talent signed on.

UPDATE:  A couple of scratches have changed the shape of this race a bit.  The Baffert lightning bolt is a no go.  Adam has also scratched Lanie's Way.  Which means MONTANA FIELDS and NO WONDER get into the game.  I think I spoke enough about 'MONTANA previous to her debut.  She is a logical contender.  NO WONDER is a first time starter from the Koriner barn that I only got to see in one drill.  She was clearly best of the team and was showing some nice athletic bounce off the Poly without being set down.  A big x-factor in my mind. 

MOONTUNE MISSY is a filly I have not had the best of looks at.  Caught a fraction of her July 30th half mile.  Not enough for a serious opinion.  GREY CHATELAINE is a son of Forest Camp making his debut.  I think we all remember how brilliant 'Forest was in his Del Mar Futurity win back in '99.  I know I do.  I don't have a strong feel for what this filly can do.  I will be forced to pass.  SPUN SILVER blows this field away when it comes to the family tree.  She is out of the unraced- mare Silvery Swan.  'Silvery has done her job as a broodmare.  El Corredor, Roman Ruler, and Maimonides ($4.6 illion dollar purchase) are all children of 'Silvery.  Off that fact alone 'SPUN demands a ton of respect.  In her morning drills she has displayed the talent you would come to expect with those bloodlines.  On July 17th she ripped off a blistering five furlong gate drill over the Poly.  I had splits of 22.80, 45.80, 57.80.  She finished best by three lengths over LU BATON.  Clearly a very fast filly.  LANIE'S WAY flashed some stride when working a solo move on July 15th.  'LANIES cost $595,500 less than SPUN SILVER.  Adam can get a horse ready to roll first time out.  I see 'LANIES as an exotics contender.  RED WHITE AND BREW is an improving two year old making her third career start.  The problem she is going to find is that this field is at another level of talent compared with what she has run against thus far.  SCARBOUROUGH FAIR is the first baby out of Class Above.  Class Above won two out of three races as a two year old.  Including a win in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile.  SCARBOROUGH is one of Shirreffs top two year olds.  She stamped herself as a runner in my mind back in June at Hollywood Park when she absolutely torched a couple of other workers from the gate without being touched.  She is a runner.  Major player.  PRINCESS WINDSHARP strikes me as a filly that is going to want more ground.  Her final drill was a heads up move in company with older stable-mate Shebang.  Will improve with racing.  HEY FEATHERS is a filly that does not have the family tree of some others in here but it has not stopped her from showing real run in the a.m..  On July 20th she toyed with another worker while recording a good time.  She must be respected. MAGIC ROBERTA is yet another runner in here that I think has above average talent.  On July 16th she worked heads up in company with older stable-mate Fado.  The rider always had her in hand.  Don't dismiss.  SUGAREE GOLD finds herself in a tough spot.  PALACIO DE AMOR is a hard trying little Ch that would surprise in here. 

BOTTOM LINE:  This two year old race is forcing me out of my cave and out to the track.  I am really looking forward to this race.  SPUN SILVER will more than likely attract a ton of attention at the windows.  Deservedly so. The superior breeding and explosive workouts are hard to ignore.  If 'SPUN gets overplayed at the windows I will take a long look at SCARBOROUGH FAIR on the win end.  I think she has stakes quality talent.  Exotically speaking I will toss in HEY FEATHERS, LANIE'S WAY, and MAGIC ROBERTA. 

Another great Saturday card on the horizon.  The big baby race of the day is Race #7.  Like last week we will go from inside to outside.

EMPIRE HOUSE makes his second start for Neil Drysdale after a respectable effort in his debut.  'EMPIRE broke a step slow before quickly recovering to get up right behind the lead group without having to be asked.  The tough part of his trip was that Flores had him in tight between runners most of the way.  Not the ideal stalking position.  I expect 'EMPIRE to show a little extra speed today with help of a cleaner break and possibly hold on for a share at a nice price.  STREET HERO is a colt that acts like a stakes quality animal.  Check out the work of the week article I wrote for ESPN {http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3504433}.  FASSNACHT is a hard trying little gelding that runs hard every time.  I see lower portion of the exotics his best potential.  KERWIN'S WAY was given a glorified workout in his debut.  He looks like a gelding that wants more ground.  I could see him sneaking into the tri/super at a big price.  ONLY BE CAUSE did not run a step in his debut for Ron McAnally.  His workouts are showing a hint of improvement but not enough for me to give him big respect in here.  SPEIGHT THE HALO is the deserving favorite and horse to beat.  He ran a winning race in his debut but was run down by a talented O'Neill trainee in the final yards.  CHOCOLATE CANDY was a colt I thought was going to win for fun in his debut.  Instead he ran very green at the back of the pack.  He came out of that race with another string of solid drills.  He is possible value and one to look for big improvement from.  LUCKIEST MAN has not done enough in his morning work to warrant serious respect.  He would surprise.  CHARLIE'S MOMENT is a gutty little gelding that would win for fun on the drop.  Unfortuntately he is still at the maiden allowance level.  He could sneak into the superfecta but I highly doubt he is good enough to beat this group.  MASSONE is due for some racing luck.  He was sitting on a win last time but Talamo was never able to get him off the rail.  He never got a chance to run in the stretch.  Big player today.  PICK TO CLICK has just not shown enough in his two drills at Del Mar.  SAY IT AGAIN would have to improve by several lengths to have any chance.  I don't think he has that kind of improvement in him. 

STREET HERO gets my vote on the win end.  If Cho keeps him healthy he will be tackling stakes company by the end of this meet.  The other three that would not surprise on the win end are MASSONE, CHOCOLATE CANDY, and SPEIGHT THE HALO.  For those tackling the trifecta/superfecta.  EMPIRE HOUSE and KERWIN'S WAY will both be big numbers.  Neither would surprise if they snuck into the exotic mix. 

UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS WEEK:  The big work horse MONTANA FIELDS was a disappointment.  He got a perfect trip but came up a little short in the final furlong.  No excuse.  STARDOM BOUND, the Paasch gray that I had mixed signals on, ran the best race.  She broke dead last and came flying from the back of the pack.   

Absolutely loaded weekend for anybody paying close attention to the California racing scene.  When you get good horses from big barns and they have all been gearing up for this summer meet you are bound to get good racing.  And that is exactly what the player has in front of them on Saturday and Sunday. 

The first loaded two year old race of the meet is lined up for Sunday in race number four. From outside to inside - Ron McAnally has the rail horse TURTLE CREEK BABE.  She was given a glorified workout in her debut and still ran a strong closing second.  Out of that race she has trained well. Improvement is probable.  STARDOM BOUND, a daughter of Tapit, finally makes her debut for trainer Christopher Paasch.  Paasch is looking to regain the status he gained a couple of years ago when he exploded on the scene with a number of live babies.  I think this is the best young runner he has.  Early on in her training she stamped herself as a filly with real ability.  On May 17th she put the beat down on a Walther Solis trainee from the gate.  However, I am not as confident now as I would have been after her June 21st drill.  She was all set to go and was scratched.  I don't know why she was scratched but her training schedule was impacted.  I did not view the July 5th drill as a breeze.  A win from her would not shock but the consistency of her pattern leaves me conflicted.  I will be forced to watch.  RISING HONOUR and ORO BLANCO have been stationed at Santa Anita.  I have not seen them train.  IRISH GYPSY comes out of a blazing fast maiden heat that produced the winner of the Landaluce (Emmy Darling) and also the second place finisher (Glitter City).  In that race she was outrun in the early stages and then put in a solid rally down the lane to just miss third.  She galloped out like a filly wanting more ground.  Have to respect her off that effort.  BUJUMBURA strikes me as a filly that is going to need racing before showing her best stuff.  LIPPY RULES is a kooky speed ball that has run honestly in both her two career starts.  Expecting her to be a pace presence once again.  MADELINE RUBY has been prepping at Santa Anita.  My notes are bare on her.  KINESIOLOGY comes in off a rather light work tab for trainer Craig Dollase.  She is by Dixie Union, a horse that was a very nice two year old.  Her mom is Lakeville.  She earned about $100K on the track which included a win at 2.  KINESIOLOGY is her first baby.  In regards to workouts.  Professional series.  The last two drills I saw from her she worked best in company.  Deserves respect.  And last but not least we have the two year old that is likely to get absolutely torched at the windows.  MONTANA FIELDS has turned in an explosive series of works over the Hollywood Cushion surface.  In her gate drill on June 22nd she blew the doors off a pair of barn-mates.  Her next gate drill on July 4th I had her setting splits of - 23.00, 46.20, 58.20 - while dusting off a Hofmans trainee without being set down.  Bejarano has been aboard for the majority of her drills so he has a very good feel for her coming into this debut.  From a morning workout perspective 'MONTANA is in another league.  She is doing everything faster and easier then the rest of her peers.  How do we make money on this?  Unfortunately, I have a hard time picturing 'MONTANA offering any sort of value on the win end.  Her series of works have not been "under the radar".  For those that like to bet against these over bet first time starters, I have a feeling you will get a chance to implement that strategy.  I understand the approach.  I will never argue with somebody who bets against the herd.  However, I can't go with the contrarian approach in this race because it would be against my own opinion.  I only wager when my opinion is strong and it differs with the majority.  My opinion is MONTANA FIELDS will win.  I doubt this opinion will be rare.  So I will be watching. 

Hope everybody has a fun weekend.   

Stable alert progress from the Cali side.  Accountability is never fun when you're reporting bad results.  Self evaluating is easy when everything is working but it becomes an uncomfortable and humbling experience when things are not going well.  My goal heading into this new stable alert project was two fold.  Bring attention to horses acting well in the a.m. and also point out horses that have recently had less than ideal trips.  From time to time these two areas would coincide and we'd have a serious gamble on our hands.  Unfortunately timing is not always on our side in this game and my putrid first twelve horses is testament to that fact.  How a player reacts to poor results is a key ingredient to success.  Because anybody that has been involved in this game long enough will go through those humbling periods.  Gambling while stuck in a rut is analogous to somebody caught in quick sand.  I don't care how much you thrash around it's just going to exacerbate the problem.  The solution is too turn off that panic button and look for some leverage to pull yourself free.  So with that said.  I would like to take a quick overview of the stable thus far, however painful it may be.

Knockout Artist - A horse in good form that was asked to do something out of his comfort zone.  He set fast fractions out on the lead and tired.  I think he wants to rate. 
Waive Liability - Poor observation on my part.  He was simply not right heading into that race.  Bad call.
Awesome Empress - A victim of the pace.  This runner needs a little help up front.  She was caught trying to close in a race with a lone speed horse.  Worth following.
Vixana - Nice filly did what she was supposed to do when breaking her maiden.
Northern Soldier - Sharp sprinter was primed in his second start off the bench.  Unfortunately the aggressive tactics led to a suicidal pace duel.  You can count on one finger the number of horses that set 22.1, 44.3 fractions on the six furlong grass course and live to tell about it. 
Suit Yourself - Good morning worker that has simply fooled me.  Worked like a good horse.  I gave an excuse off a troubled trip.  Got a perfect trip and failed to fire. 
Squire Trelawny - Five year old first time starter.  Had been aggressively spotted in a weak race but everything went wrong.  Broke dead last, pulled, went wide and flattened. 
Grace Gryder - A two year old coming off a troubled trip.  Maybe a little stretch on my part but I've always felt two year olds can make drastic improvement from one start to the next.  At a price these kind are worth the risk.
Brite Ruler - Ran a good race on the lead.  Was simply second best.
Kindacatchy - Bad call on my part.  I consider this a chase horse.  When I make a poor decision it's usually staying on a horse too long waiting for the big effort. 
Smoking Hemet - Troubled trip against better in debut that had the look of a serious prep.  These kind of runners are usually very live.  This one chased the pace and quit. 
El Spaniard - Ron Ellis trained runner is a one speed two turn mover.  Was spotted well in second start but never got out of first gear. 

I feel very strongly that results, in anything you do, will come if you take the right approach.  Looking backwards can be a tricky strategy because hindsight is always 20-20.  At the same time it is important to recognize when an approach needs to be tweaked and that can only happen when you pore over the past.  So like everything else in life it becomes a compromise.  Learning when it is time to turn the page and when it is time to take a step back and re-evaluate. 

Hope everybody has a great handicapping weekend.  Del Mar just around the corner!