JeremyPlonk

Please update anything you've seen of mine in COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN at ESPN.com or on the HorseplayerPRO.com homepage to reflect my new Belmont Stakes analysis. The perils of public handicapping are such that this happens.

1-BIG BROWN

2-ICABAD CRANE

3-MACHO AGAIN

4-DENIS OF CORK

Something to that second-off-the-plane after all...

Hey, everybody, have fun Saturday! It's not all negative...even what you read from me this week :-). To the young guys (and old) here wanting Big Brown to be their generation's horse, all the best! Enjoy the race with your close friends and family.

JP

A tease to my soon-to-be-released COUNTDOWN TO THE CROWN at ESPN.com later today:

Despite all that you've heard and read, Thoroughbred racing doesn't NEED a Triple Crown winner; it merely wants one. What the industry absolutely NEEDS on Saturday is for every horse to return safely, and BIG BROWN's feet to hold up healthy. With a congressional hearing on the safety of horse racing looming, and the feds holding the interstate simulcasting act over the sport's head, the immediate fate of the industry could be at the mercy of one safe trip. The sport may never be the same if something, heaven for bid, happens to BIG BROWN on the track.

Let's all hope to the heavens that it's a safe Belmont for all involved. If you enjoy betting any races not in your home state, whether at a track, OTB or ADW, the biggest of big risks may be on the line Saturday. I know everyone says BIG BROWN is healthy enough to run; and I know there will be a state vet give him the OK to go. But I'm also not naive enough to think that the millions at stake and historical significance aren't factors for all factions to run -- and not just the connections, of which I've been critical. And, as they say, there's "horse sound" and then there's "racing sound." We know for a fact that horses with problems run in every single race, every single day, from all types of horsemen, both respected and unrespected.

Put the horses and riders in your thoughts over the next few days, and let's enjoy a great race.

While I'm not coming to Joe Kristufek's defense by chiming in, I want to reiterate a column I wrote for ESPN.com in 2002, which was based on the Meatloaf premise, "Two Outta Three Ain't Bad." It's not blasphemous to think from a MARKETING standpoint that the tease of the Triple Crown is better business than the Crown being realized. That's not me talking, that's the numbers. You all know I'm a stats geek, so I come prepared.

Crowd for Secretariat's Belmont win in 1973, sealing the Triple Crown: 69,138.

Crowd for Seattle Slew's Belmont win in 1977, sealing the Triple Crown: 71,026.

Crowd for Affirmed's Belmont win in 1978, sealing the Triple Crowd: 65,417.

The decade of the '70s was racing's glory time for the Triple Crown, the first winners since 1948. And look how the crowds responded. There was no decided "bump" from the Secretariat publicity, and when the "repeat" Triple Crown possibilty was there in 1978, despite the immaculate Affirmed-Alydar rivlary, there was an ASTOUNDING attendance drop of 9.2 percent! Did it become old hat? Did America lose interest because it was no longer a feat?

And what about television ratings?

Year-Rating-Share-Network-Horse

1973.....17.5......52.......CBS.....Secretariat (1974 dropped to 11.0....36...Little Current)

1977....17.2....53....CBS....Seattle Slew

1978....10.9...39....CBS...Affirmed

That's astonishing. The drop-off from Slew to Affirmed was felt BIG-TIME not only on-track, but even moreso by mainstream America at the TV sets, where ratings were down more than 36%!!!!!

The proliferation of cable television in the early 1980s forever changed Nielsen TV Ratings, which cannot compare to the days of only 4 channels. But check out the impact of the tease in the 2000s!

2002....12.41 million viewers....8.4 rating....22 share....NBC.....War Emblem going for glory.

2003....15.70 million viewers....10.7 rating....25 share....NBC....Funny Cide going for glory.

2004....21.89 million viewers....13.1 rating.....29 share....NBC....Smarty Jones going for glory.

That's incredible, and directly opposite of what we've seen after Triple Crown wins. Growth in "tease" Belmonts was a MIND-BOGGLING 43 percent greater just from War Emblem to Smarty Jones in 2 years!

Now, you all make wonderful arguments as to the number of new fans a superhorse may bring to the game, and that is a difficult measure, but certainly a valid point. I'm with you on that, but have no idea how to define my stance with you.

And, even a cheap-level racing newbie to the game like me at Charles Town/Shenandoah Downs in West Virginia in the late 1970s can be hooked on the game for many reasons -- two of mine were old plow-horses named Mighty Ben and Onion Juice -- though I'll admit I carried around a newspaper results clipping in my wallet in high school of $1,642.80 trifecta score I made when I was 16 and had to pay some local jip to cash because I wasn't old enough to sign the IRS papers and I went to the track with friends, and not dad, that day.

Background for this story you may want to read:

http://tvbythenumbers.com/2008/06/03/belmont-stakes-tv-viewership/4003

http://espn.go.com/horse/triplecrown02/s/2002/0531/1389194.html

Greetings from the home office this week as I take a self-imposed boycott of the Belmont Stakes road trip. You all know my feelings well when it comes to the inevitable Triple Crown sweep of Big Brown, so I'll bypass the melee on Long Island and skip what is an easy drive to the track. If he wins, I'll tip my cap from the television set and salute a deserving animal. But I don't want to be privy to that gathering with a side trip down the higher moral road. That's just me -- stubborn and standing up for what I believe in, even to a fault.

Our man Timmy T, Tim Turrell, will be large and in charge at Belmont this week. Be sure to check out his blogs from Big Sandy. He's got the ins we need to find out what's up with Big Brown and his feet.

A couple things on the business inside front --- Xpressbet customers be sure to check out the Belmont Stakes wagering guide, captained by yours truly, at Xpressbet.com. We'll also be providing more updates as the week rolls on, so go download your PDF copy now! In addition to handicapping stats and trends, you'll also get wagering strategies from the likes of Gary Stevens, Bob Neumeier, Dick Jerardi, Mike Battaglia, Jeff Siegel and Jon White.

Be on the lookout this fall for a massive statistical presence at Keeneland.com. Last week, I inked a deal with Kee to study every Polytrack race in the track's 4 meetings, picking apart every set of past performances, charts, weather reports, track maintenance details, et al. I fully expect it to be the most comprehensive Polytrack handicapping tool put together in that surface's infancy. Kudos to Keeneland for seeking me out on the project, which goes to show that they have their intentions with the horseplayers - a great, and rare, sign in this industry!

Horseplayer PRO is proud to have unleased The Winner's Card, NYRA Edition this past week. It's been a long time coming, and I am very happy to be back in the daily handicapping process. It's truly the energizing force that got me into the game in the first place, the science and strategy of handicapping. Many of my duties over the years have prevented me from being able to devote enough time to the daily wars, but this is something I was chomping at the bit to get back to. Each edition of The Winner's Card for Belmont also includes NYC OTB television handicapper Pete Rotondo, Sr.'s best bets. You can say I'm bringing in the inside dope for the assist! We started out nicely with the $18 winner in Saturday's G2 Sands Point and a cold exacta paying $50 plus. But, ah, Sunday humbled us big-time. As I always say, "that's why they have the NEXT race."

The year's final edition of COUNTDOWN to the CROWN will be posted at ESPN.com on Thursday this week. It's been another great, 5-month run and my fingers are falling off. I mean, what's a measley 50,000 words on the 3-year-old crop...right?

All the best,

JP

Jeremy Plonk

Horseplayer PRO

Read these 2 articles and tell me any way in your heart of hearts that you want Big Brown to win the Triple Crown. Remember, BB (God bless him) won't feel a bit different a week from Saturday win or lose, just rather if he returns healthy. It's the PEOPLE who benefit from his success. And racing will get a measely 48 to 72-hour news cycle bump and then another one on the day he walks off the van at Three Chimneys, because there's no way he's racing again. The hoof issue this week ensures that, and gives a built-in retirement speech, win or lose, Saturday. Paying the ghastly insurance premiums to keep this horse running would be a losing venture even to win the Travers.

On the second post, please consider the source - in this case, one of the GREAT men in racing writing and a personal friend of mine, Dick Jerardi. He comes at it from a horseplayer's view at all times, and he is completely pro-Dutrow. Even he, and Dutrow's longtime friends, can't paint a rosy picture.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGle6KcO9IJ0&refer=home

http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20080430_Horse_trainer_s_wild_life_on_hold_for_Kentucky_Derby.html