McCarron

The previous blog entries on the Belmont outcome have already covered the emotions, thoughts, conclusions, and general sentiments I am also feeling. I'll attempt to add something to the conversation as best I can.

In life, there are always moments in which words cannot adequately convey emotion, but I'll give it the ol' College try. About halfway through the Belmont, I actually became physically nauseous realizing what was about to happen, or in this case, not happen.

This game cannot buy a break. Although much of its ills are self inflicted with online wagering company squabbles, lack of a universal rules oversight board/commissioner, steroid/medication problems, etc., a horse like Big Brown had the power, for at least a moment, to transcend all of that B.S. Big Brown was supposed to remind those out of the circle of racing fans, and some fans (and professional writers) within the family, what this sport is really about. That is, the beauty, grace, and professionalism of a top thoroughbred athlete achieving seemingly impossible hurdles; the apex of sport.

Instead, thousands of hot, sweaty, and exhausted patrons went away feeling cheated. Given the general state of economy and how it will get worse before it will get better, Big Brown had the opportunity to make people forget the ills of the human world much like his thoroughbred heros during the depression era. Is that an overstatement? Perhaps. However, there is nothing more inherently appealing than an athlete that cannot speak. Cannot guarantee victory. Cannot hold out for another $5 Million. Cannot demand a trade. With the chaos of the world around us, which is purely due to actions of our fellow humans, what could be better than cheering for a fine athlete to bring us all some joy without strings attached?

For those of you that generally believe Big Brown losing was in fact equal or more beneficial to the sport than his defeat, I hope you realize the err of your perceptions. You think more than a handful of those on track patrons will want to come back for some more huge disappointment, both emotionally and financially? Given that plenty of regular mega-fans are feeling cheated, hurt, and disappointed, how do you think the lay world is feeling about it? I'm feeling bad enough to take some time off and it could be an extended layoff.......

It also opens the door for mainstream A-hole sports writers to pen their told-you-so smug attitude about the sport. Here is Chief Resident racing hater and abortionist of the written word, William Rhoden's headline today in the NY Times: "Wondering If Steroids Fueled a Run at Glory". Fantastic! Isn't this just swell? I'm sure glad Big Brown lost; this is GREAT for racing!!!!! Hopefully Curlin will start losing too!!

I haven't read all of the post Belmont nonsense, but is anyone praising Kent D. today for pulling Big Brown up when he realized he had no shot at hitting the board? I sure hope they praise him as vigorously as they laid it on Larry Jones and Gabriel Saez for the breakdown of Eight Belles. Will PETA issue a certificate of merit for Kent D.?

Unfortunately, The NY Post said it best with its front page headline: "Big Frown".

I was lucky enough to come across a document formulated by the Thoroughbred Enterprise Recommendation Department or T.E.R.D. as they are more commonly known, outlining suggested industry changes for the betterment of the game:

Online Wagering:

-Make sure the customer must have a minimum of three online accounts to wager on all available U.S. tracks. Furthermore, on the biggest handle days of the year, limit the total customer base as much as possible. To that end, ban the most populated states from accessing all online accounts.

Ontrack Ambience:

-Minimize the ontrack experience to the point where the customer has no fu*king idea a horse race is even occurring. The best method of camouflage is large banks of slot machines.

-For those descendents of Vespucci and/or Magellan that successfully stumble upon the live product, bury them with gimmicks like Ostrich Racing, T-shirt giveaways, Frank’s Energy Drink Model Slut Searches, and put on post racing concerts featuring decrepit has-beens like Peter Frampton or REO Speedwagon.

-Make sure to reward your most loyal and highest handle producing consumers with absolutely nothing a free cup of piping hot $5,000 claimer urine.

-Increase takeout, inact harsh tax penalties for winning wagers, and make the base wager for all exotics $3.54 just to poop on the 26 remaining regulars.

-Try to attract young fans, because nothing says future success like catering to a group of people with 43 second Blackberry addicted attention spans, no disposable income, and a general like of horse racing that equals that of a rectal exam.

-Add bonus Breeders’ Cup races without consulting one living, breathing handicapper.

-Hire leaders like “Brownie” that will do, “a heckueva job”.

Safety:

-All existing dirt tracks must adopt replacement surfaces, which must be formulated from one of the following substances:

-Pillows

-Feathers

-Marshmallow Fluff or Marshmallow Peeps (Spring meets only)

-Mashed potatoes

-Cotton balls

-2 ply toilet paper

-Packing peanuts

-Bubble wrap

-Retire any rickety speed horse with “bad feet”. Since the breed is so weak, they will pass on sore feet from generation to generation creating a group of animals incapable of walking. I have a blister on my foot, which sadly puts any of my future children at risk of being born without the opportunity to walk.

-Any horse without at least 10 career starts will be put down or adopted by a PETA psychopath instead of heading to the breeding shed.

-Ban the whip and non-organic oats and hay. Trainers and vets must purchase all food or water consumed by horses under their care from Whole Foods or face severe fines, or worse, subject them to a half an hour of watching Hank Goldberg handicap. 

Age/Breeding Restrictions:

-5 year old male horses only. Girls are too brittle.

-All Mares must be bred to an Abrams Tank, Hummer, Aircraft Carrier, 757, Torpedo Shell, Bomb Shelter, Brick House, or Lou Ferrigno.

National Commentary:

-Find the most self-centered and opportunistic never have-been hacks called national sportswriters to comment on breakdowns and give them front page Sports Section press, but only after major visible accidents, and allow them to write long pieces on something they know nothing about. This will give the general public the wrong idea about horse racing and drive the sport to extinction in no time.

Handicapping Contests:

-Ensure the two largest and best attended national handicapping contests occur on the EXACT same day, limiting participation.

We are blessed with a pursuit that is infinitely more compelling than any other sport due in part to the number of moving pieces. It’s a beautiful game both ascetically and statistically with inherent challenges far beyond the comprehension of most that know little or know nothing about it.

As a [somewhat] brief aside, this hasn’t stopped generalist sportswriters like William Rhoden from making strong, erroneous statements without proper background. Having just returned from a long work trip [in Vegas no less], I was ecstatic to watch the NBC pre-Preakness coverage, taking pride in the six gallons of sweat dripping off his headline seizing, opportunistic, self serving, fat head, as three experts made him look silly without even trying. Hats off to Larry Jones and Gary Stevens for keeping their cool when both wanted to choke the guy…..The look in Gary’s eye was priceless; like he was about to strut over to his chair and punch him in the nuts).

Getting back in the right frame of mind here for this post--Beyer figures (and others), in my humble opinion, are a function of our societal need for simplification of everything in life. For each and every day that passes in my Horseplayer Education, I use those numbers less and less, which also quite directly corresponds to my ascension from an annual loser to a perennial winner.

With all of the intangible and unquantifiable aspects of a horse race, which is a fairly capricious event to begin with, how can any human being, even one with a degree from M.I.T (in case you missed Beyer’s 8,567,332,456,223 references to his alma matter—Crist went to Harvard, which to his credit, he only mentioned 456,766,434 times in the past three years), can possibly summarize in single performance of a single competitor with a single number?

This bottom line is tough to argue with; although I’m sure many will try….I love the idea of the speed figure given the sheer number of track surfaces out there, each with their own idiosyncrasies, speeds, depths, angles, consistencies, etc. The theory of such a number is more compelling than the “practical” application.

I’m not implying that speed figures are useless (except on the Keeneland and Del Mar Poly)---directionally and in the right context, they are one of many on a laundry list of handicapping factors. However, I believe that the human propensity to simplify such a complex and wonderful event, a horse race, through a single number is so intrinsically troubled that it creates more questions than it answers.

This idea is precisely why so many horses with seemingly inferior figures can win big races. Pays to Dream, winner of the Dixie Stakes on the Pimlico undercard is one such example. Beyer players most certainly tossed that animal instantly based on figures, yet he won by over 7 lengths at 19:1. Grossly overmatched horses don’t win Grade II races by 7, yet the magic number told us it was impossible……..

The Ragozin sheets, Thorograph, Beyers, or any speed figure is simply a snapshot that attempts to measure an unquantifiable event. Read Crist’s latest blog entitled “Triple Crown Figs” and tell me that one word of that matters one iota……….

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

First things first: Thanks to all of the Horseplayer Pro bloggers that provided excellent coverage of the action on a daily basis from Churchill on Derby week. It is greatly appreciated.......

Perched high above the finish line in the Pressbox of Canterbury Park on Friday night, I reached an apex of frustration with the Churchill simulcast signal. All day, we waited for the Derby Oaks probables, and all day we received nothing. In the time between the 9^th race and the Oaks, with an entire hour of time to fill, surely the probables would surface?

Imagine this scene: I’m sitting in a working Pressbox of a thoroughbred racing facility on one of the most important days of the year, and not one person can find the probables linked to the biggest horse race on the planet? Here I am, amongst the most ardent and committed handicappers and industry professionals (keep in mind I flew from NJ to MN to watch the KY Derby—Try explaining that one to the lay public) and we were unsuccessful in finding the numbers. I tried my Youbet account—No Churchill. Several of us tried the internet; strike two. Maybe we simply missed the probables via the simu signal? Nope, strike three. Perhaps I'm missing something and just happened to turn away at precisely the same time the probables were listed, since this cannot possibly be the case, right?

I cannot overstate how pathetic this is. I’m sitting amongst people in the 99.99999% level of commitment to this game, commitment to the pari-mutuels, and despite ample effort, watched the Oaks without an even passing idea of what the damn double might pay. One of my friends, who is without a doubt the most ardent fan of this game I’ve ever met, didn’t bother with placing his usual Oaks/Derby double, and who in God’s name could blame him?

Now that Churchill has managed to shut out the most loyal and committed patrons, despite tremendous effort from said customers to attempt to make a bet which as an aside is the point of their business to begin with, there is no lower point. This is akin to a retail company hiding their merchandise from the sales floor. As a company, Churchill is basically telling us to F ourselves-and to rub fish piss into the wound, we had absolutely no problem throughout the two days getting the probables for the Over/Under/On wager.

Now on to the Derby: A 20 horse field each and every year ensures that even if the favorite wins, there are tremendous opportunities for a fantastic windfall. The pundits were absolutely correct to state 5:2 on a horse from the 20 post, with three career starts, and “foot” issues (Imagine if he didn’t have “foot” issues or gets a good post one of these days??) is not worth playing at that price. That is the correct mindset; you can find 5:2 on a regular basis in short fields in races with fewer moving pieces.

This animal towered over the competition on paper (and that was as thin a field as we have ever had for a Derby), but the contrarian mindset that makes many of us good handicappers, also works against us. I heard just about every excuse in the book for why this freakish talent wouldn’t win prior to the Derby; sometimes I think horseplayers have something against greatness or are unwilling to accept it, like his past three races were all somehow excusable in some manner leading up to the Derby (green in the stretch in FLA Derby, trained at the quiet Palm Meadows facility instead of CD, “needs the lead”, will get caught up in a heated pace duel, isn’t seasoned enough, hasn’t faced decent competition, has brittle feet, etc.) while many of the other horses in the field with questionable form were given various excuses for why they failed to run better prior to the Derby.

I was a victim of the same mindset as I watched Smarty Jones and Barbaro take the Roses while I took home nothing but write-offs. I made the mistake of excusing their greatness/form, rather than embracing it. I decided after the 2006 Derby to bury my hatred for chalk in the Derby as opportunities still abound for plenty of square payouts.

Perhaps the Giacomo syndrome tugs at the human propensity for greed, where the dream of a huge payout overtakes logic. Handicapping fundamentals are always paramount, whether it’s the Derby or a $3,500 claimer at Fonner Park. 5:2 is a tough pill to take, no doubt, but note the EX, TRI, and SUPER payouts. You can use the favorite in the Derby and still take home some serious cake. The public, especially newcomers to the game, ought to be conditioned to realize shooting for the moon is a tall order in this race and sticking to what is probable rather than what might happen is the difference between signers and Autotote paper memories.

By the way, did you see the fantastic overhead camera shot of Big Brown’s stretch run? Sick.

Joe K: How do you like your crow, fried or baked? (All in good fun)

I just got back to NJ and read the NY Times Derby coverage, which is actually better stated as Eight Belles death news. They wrote more articles and editorials on one day about this breakdown than you'll see in that publication in half a year about actual racing. William Rhoden wrote an especially sickening piece. I can't wait to write him a response and cancel my weekend subscription, not that the Times nor Mr. Rhoden will care one lick about what I have to say.

And finally, I’m not sure why Dutrow is the scum of the earth while the other recent Triple Crown winning trainers and previously suspended cheaters Pletcher and Asmussen are such swell fellas. I suppose Asmussen is more affable and Pletcher is more professional than Dutrow, but a suspended cheater is a suspended cheater. He is not my favorite, never has been, never will be. However, give him credit for telling the whole world honestly what he felt, like it or not, arrogance and all.

Really, I'm almost through talking about this.......

The track superintendent at Keeneland must also be hearing the criticism of the surface given the complete bias reversal this weekend. Perhaps it was weather related or “random”, but the timing is conspicuous given the recent publicity surrounding the drop in handle. A friend of mine made a great point to this end: It's understandable given last years' running of the Blue Grass to tighten up the track a bit for the 2008 race due to the slow final time and nature of how that race was run during the 2007 renewal. However, the track played as its typical self last weekend with Monba narrowly defeating Cowboy Cal. This weekend, it looked a lot like the old Keeneland. This leads me to believe there is a correlation between the announcement and the sudden shift.

I understand the frustration of the typical KEE Polytrack under conventional wisdom and modern speed handicapping. The results seem somewhat random and chaotic. We’ve been over the arguments and debated the pros and cons of the old versus the new. This entry is not to beat a dead horse so to speak, but to further illustrate why I like the typical (typical referring to the way it normally plays) KEE surface.

This weekend was more or less all about scouring the PP’s for any nag or sled that can run fast enough early fractions to stay in the mix and let the surface do the rest akin to the old Keeneland or old speed ovals of SoCal. With the typical surface, handicapping becomes so much more challenging, intriguing, and rewarding financially. It also refuses to allow unfit animals with no business winning horse races to do just that. That creativity was absent this weekend as even Sinister Samba Rooster Minister just about went gate to wire after ludicrous early fractions of 22.78-45.21-109.48 (faster fractions than Sinister Minister went in 2006!). Those are just about as ridiculous as the fractions set by Bob Black Jack when I believe he went 20 and 4/42 and 2 on January 26^th in the Sunshine Millions--on a relative basis when you consider how slow the KEE oval normally plays, Samba Wild Syn went ludicrous speed. 

I’ve said my final piece on the subject as it’s now time for Derby hype to hit its final stride and I’m sure y’all are tired of this KEE apologist standing on the plastic coated soap box. With that said, I’ll set the over under on the number of times the term, “Regret in 1915” is mentioned at 126.5.

Good luck with the Derby/Oaks handicapping.