Wickedstyle

West Virginia Derby - Recap

Ready Set

Web Set

Real Appeal

Times in 100ths: :22.66 :46.11 1:11.51 1:38.49 1:52.03

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Cherokee Artist, My Pal Charlie, Proud Kentuckian, I've Heard It All, Z Fortune, Recapturetheglory, Stolen Chevy, Acting Zippy

Scratched: Marble Cliff

$2,339 Tri-fecta win for those lucky / smart enough to place money on these top three horses. I thought there was room for an upset in this race, but I clearly wasn't thinking big enough.

As I watched the race unfold I had an uneasy feeling that Recapturetheglory's early bid for the rail may have cost him the race. It appeared to me that he ended up going three to four wide in the first turn, and Acting Zippy forced Recapture to run a relatively hot half mile (46.11). By the end of the race these two horses ended up 9^th and last.

However things didn't look too badly for my analysis as Cherokee Artist and My Pal Charlie took the lead at the three quarter mark - I leaned back in my seat and thought to myself:

"Well this isn't exactly how I saw things playing out, but this makes sense".

Alas, My Pal Charlie and Cherokee Artist had also expended themselves by going wide in the second turn and as they reached the stretch Ready Set astutely found the gap along the rail and passed these two horses without much of a contest.  Moments later Web Gem made a great late charge at Ready Set - incidentally at this point in the race I sat up in my chair and yelled aloud:

WEBGEM?!?!

I was absolutely stymied that none of my horses (even Z Fortune) were in the vicinity. I could certainly argue that had Marble Cliff run everything would have been different - but I'm not sure I even believe that.

Story and Video to follow:

http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=34039

8th Race , West Virginia Derby

Post Time: 5:15 PM (local time)

Distance/Restrictions: 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt

Purse: $750,000 Grade: 3

Web Gem

My Pal Charlie

Cherokee Artist

Acting Zippy

Z Fortune

Recapturetheglory

Ready Set

Proud Kentuckian

Stolen Chevy

Marble Cliff

Real Appeal

I've Heard it all

I'll begin by writing (for those of you who don't know) I am a son of the soil, a Mountaineer, a member of the Thundering Herd, and most of my family were born and raised in the "Lean on Me" state of West Virginia.  Not only that but I was born in the city of Huntington, the original 1923 home of the West Virginia Derby so it's a race that I usually take an interest in.

As soon as I saw Z Fortune's name on the race card going off at 4/1 I couldn't help but think: Here we go again - he'll break your heart again - Ray, Norah - tell them how we feel about Z Fortune.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTT0_3iYIPk&feature=related

(*As luck would have it a horse named Norah won the 1924 W.V. Derby)

For those of you who check in with my blog you'll know that Z Fortune's puzzling career has seen a lot of screen time here at Wickedstyle. Z Fortune entered spring looking like a horse on the rise, but now that's it's getting close to fall he looks like a horse badly in need of rest. He's been a bettors headache over the past few months, failing to win races that he was the favorite, and in a recent outing, the Iowa Derby, he came in 7^th place finishing behind Acting Zippy who came in 4^th. However looking at the morning line you'd see that Z Fortune is currently going off at 4/1, while Acting Zippy is slated at 20/1 - go figure? In general terms I like Z Fortune, but his regression over the past few months has me counting him out for this one.

The W.V. Derby also features a rematch from the Northern Dancer Stakes and the Barbaro Stakes.

In the Northern Dancer Stakes My Pal Charlie finished 2^nd ahead of the favorite, Illinois Derby winner, Recapturetheglory (4^th). Both of these horses "seem" talented, and both should have a solid shot at victory against this field. In my opinion the West Virginia Derby is going to be a make or break race for these horses in regards to their level of talent or at the very least the level of consistency they offer from race to race. If either or both of these horses don't end up any better than 6^th I'll be inclined to believe that it has been their successes that are flukes and not their failures.

From the Barbaro Stakes are 3^rd place Ready Set who just fell short against 2^nd place Cherokee Artist by a neck. Cherokee Artist has been a horse on the rise this summer and  (unlike Z Fortune) seems to be improving with every race. I like his post position in this race and I think he's primed for a solid outing this Saturday.

Web Gem, who recently came in 4^th in the Dwyer Stakes, and Stolen Chevy who came in last in the Ohio Derby haven't shown me anything to make me believe they'll crack the top 3.

I don't have any notes on I've Heard It All - hence the irony that I've heard nothing about this horse, other than he's currently the long shot going off at 50-1.

Real Appeal recently went from last to first in the Alysheba Breeder's Cup, and if the pace is right in this race he could surprise - however I think there are several horses who would have to have "off" races for Real Appeal to win.

Proud Kentuckian recently won a mile and 70 yard competition, but has never raced against this kind of talent before.

Marble Cliff is a horse that I have a lot of interest in. He recently won the Cleveland Gold Cup, he's 4 for 5 lifetime having won those four races by a combined 39 ¼ lengths. Like Proud Kentuckian he's never squared off against horses that had a few Derby's under their belt....or I guess saddle, you know what I mean. And as I look at the field Cherokee Artist has been the only consistent horse out of this bunch, and I certainly don't think he's unbeatable. Currently going off at 12/1 it might be worth a few dollars to take a chance on this Marble getting on a roll.

*Incidentally one of the largest Marble Manufacturing plants in North America is Marble King in Paden W.V.

In conclusion I like Recapturetheglory, Marble Cliff and Cherokee Artist - I think there's a very solid chance for an "upset" in this one, hence a chance for a savvy bettor to make some money. Should be a fun race to watch.

For those of you wondering why I call West Virginia the "Lean on Me" state - Bill Withers wrote the song Lean on Me about his life and upbringing in Slab Fork W.V., while Country Roads (Almost Heaven WV) wasn't originally written about the state of WV, the lyrics just happen to fall in place with the song.

Swap Stakes - Recap

Tres Borrachos

Two Step Salsa

Colonel John

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Madeo
Scratched: Nownownow and Trevor's Clever

Tres Borrachos...YES! I think the track announcer may have actually achieved some sort of climax with the end of this race?!?

Watching them clear the final turn you could see Tres Borrachos take full, and fearless, advantage of the rail, pushing Two Step Salsa and Colonel John outside and to the back. Tres Borrachos seems to be a horse who is maturing and becoming a really solid summer three year old . Just his name alone had kept me interested in following his career - but now there's an added incentive to keep watching.

I was really surprised that Colonel John didn't have his usual late rally - these are horses he should have beaten.  I chalked the Kentucky Derby loss to, too many horses and perhaps a slightly inflated resume from the West Coast. However the Swaps Stakes should have been the perfect race for Colonel John, and as a bettor I'll be very curious to see where odds are for the next race - here's a horse I wouldn't want to bet against, however after the last two races I wouldn't exactly like to put money on him either??

Video and Story to follow:

http://www.ntra.com/races.aspx?id=31494&section=races

Swap Stakes

Hollywood Park - Race 8

Grade 2

1 1/8 miles

Tres Borrachos

Two Step Salsa

Nownownow

Colonel John

Madeo

Trevor's Clever

When I first looked at this race I immediately went to the Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John and gave the race very little thought - I mean after all the Colonel has been pretty finger licking good when it comes to racing in California and outside of his lackluster Kentucky Derby he's been a very solid horse overall. However after further review I'm not so confident that he's as much of a "lock" for this race as I was first thought.

Two Step Salsa recently set Hollywood Park on fire in his victorious romp in the Affirmed Handicap that left Tres Borrachos several lengths behind for second place. In the Affirmed Handicap Two Step Salsa broke from the gate very well and proceeded to go wire to wire.

Trevor's Clever and Madeo also finished one / two in the Alydar Stakes and should add to the deceptive amount of competition that Colonel John may face this Saturday.

Finally there is also Nownownow, last fall's Juvenile Turf Champion, who is returning from a forgettable venture overseas.

I think this has the makings for a great race, if Two Step Salsa can break from the gate as well as he did in the Affirmed, and Trevor's Clever can position himself well early, Colonel John could be looking at a difficult close in the final stretch. I'm also not counting out Tres Borrachos to compete in this race. It's probably foolish to bet against Sergeant Santa Anita (Colonel John), especially at the perfect distance for him, but I like Two Step Salsa to beat him by a nose in this one.

To kick off your weekend how about a little Two Step Salsa and a little Mambo -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNUo8m3J1wM&feature=related

Iowa Derby - Recap

Tiz Now Tiz Then

DQ - Maya's Storm

Repenting

Day of Victory

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Acting Zippy, Sebastian County, Z Fortune, Rich Young Ruler

 I think it's safe to say that it may be time to give Z Fortune a rest. Z Fortune went off as the favorite in the Iowa Derby (and oh how I feel for those bettors) and he was never any closer than fourth place throughout the race. Z Fortune seems to be continually regressing as a horse, and it's actually becoming kind of painful to watch.

I was surprised that Maya's Storm had odds of (13.30) because I thought this horse would be a favorite coming into the race, tough break that Acting Zippy's rider claimed a foul on Maya's Storm and consequently put Maya in 5^th place.

As they rounded the final turn you could see Day of Victory was going to have trouble gaining any ground after going six wide. Unfortunately Borel couldn't muster up any of that Kentucky Derby magic from 2007 and find an opening for the filly to fly through.

I'm not very familiar with Tiz Now Tiz Then however it seems a number of Iowa bettors were, as they had him going off as the second favorite at 5/1. I'll certainly be keeping my eyes out for him and his next race, although it's difficult to tell how tough of a challenge he had in the Iowa Derby.