caesarsghost

Finally, a modern day champion.  Enjoy him, for soon he will be gone I suspect.  Yesterdays Jockey Gold Club cemented the deal.  While Wanderin Boy is certainly no Cigar or first-rate graded horse, he's, as they say, "best of the rest" right now.  More importantly, he had it all his own way yesterday, and if Curlin were going to get beat, that was the time and place.  Racing wide into slow early fractions with a loose-on-the-lead horse on a speed favoring track, he had his work cut out.  At the top of the stretch I was sure he was going to hang, but he turned it up a notch and got it done, just as champions are supposed to do. 

I was never completely sold on Big Brown as the wunderkind many thought, and am still not.  Maybe it's his feet, maybe it's his temperament, but I think him somewhat unreliable and unpredictable; not characteristics of a champion.  I would love to see him tangle with and get his butt kicked by Curlin, but it appears that won't happen because Curlin's connections are afraid of the Santa Anita surface.  What a shame.  It's too bad the horse can't express his wishes, because I'm sure he would say to hell with Poly- let's go race.   

is the only apt description I can think of as to how it feels when you think you have done a good job of handicapping and it all goes awry.  

Saturday at Saratoga there were two horses coming out of the graded Vanderbilt sprint.  One was Sammarco who was going in a NW2L allowance, and the other was First Defence, going in the Forego stakes.  I thought the Vanderbilt a suspect race despite the high Beyers of the top finishers and the good horses in the race.  For one thing, the final time was ordinary after a very fast first half mile, usually the sign of an underperforming race.  Sammarco who finished 3rd in the Vanderbilt I believe, (I don't have my form any more) was made the 7-5 favorite.  I bet against him, and he finished 6th with no excuses, corroborating, I thought, my analysis.  The time of the race was 1:09/4 and he finished 11 lengths off.  Several races later, First Defence, who only beat Sammarco by a length and a half in the Vanderbilt, went off at 7-1, because Lucky Island, Kiaran McLaughlin's horse, looked a standout.  Lucky Island got pinched and steadied at the start, and never had a chance.  Meanwhile, I had used several others in my pick-4, but not First Defence because of Sammarco's poor effort, which seemed to confirm my suspicions of the Vanderbilt.  The negative key race angle, if you will.  So what happens?  First Defence wires the field by seven lengths, going by six furlongs in 1:08/2.  I don't think Lucky Island would have beat him in any case.  So the upshot is that two quality horses that finished less than two lengths apart in their last run 18 lengths apart several weeks later.  I know, it happens all the time- horses just not showing up, but it's stuff like this that remind you that it often doesn't matter how smart you are (or think you are), a little dumb luck and selective disregard of the facts can sometimes beat all the handicapping in the world. 

One other observation:  I know there are Beyer number haters out there, but in this case the Beyers out of the Vanderbilt were high despite the seemingly slow time.  I can only conclude they were correct, pointing out First Defence's effort, and that Sammarco just didn't run.   

I had an interesting little episode of numbers roulette yesterday at the track.  I had bet an early pick-3 at Philly Park with the #2 horse leading off.  He won at 5-1, and I was in good shape going forward until I looked at my ticket and saw that I didn't have #2, but rather #3, who was the longest horse on the board and had no shot.  I had obviously mis-punched the ticket on the self-service machine.  Of course the pick-3 came in, but it wasn't too disastrous, only costing me about $80.  So as the day progressed and I took my usual dose of tough beats and horrible trips, I came to a race late in the day at Ellis where I decided to bet another #2 horse.  I went and bet about $20 in win and exacta tickets on the self-service machines.  This time, however, I checked them, and they were all #3, just like earlier in the day.  I have no explanation for why that occurred twice, but this time I had the time to go to a live tote and exchanged all the tickets for #2.  Need I tell you the rest?  The #3 won the race at 10-1, and the #2 didn't run a step.  That one cost me about $100, but even though I didn't deserve it in one sense, I felt "owed" from the previous bad break.  Not to be, of course.  One of my buddies said someone is trying to send you a message.  Maybe so, but if that's the case, I wish I knew what the hell the message was.  Any cosmic interpretations or insights are greatly appreciated. 

I couldn't help but be struck by the similarity of hype and media overexposure that Big Brown and Michael Phelps received going into their championship tests.  Clearly that analogy would be a stretch for most people, but I think the folks here can see it.  As with most over-hyped athletes or events, I went into the Olympics skeptical that Phelps was worthy of the genuflection, and not particularly rooting for him (although not against), much as I was with Big Brown's Triple Crown attempt.  Call it a skepticism and cynicism borne of years of observing over-hyped athletes, both human and equine. 

As we all know, Big Brown failed his ultimate test, and since then has not done much in my estimation to redeem his fallen star.  Maybe he yet well.  But Phelps- that's another story.  There is a champion.  He passed every test, sometimes with ease, sometimes with grit, once with luck and once by being bailed out.  He showed the kind of class, consistency and talent that we wish for and project onto our thoroughbred heroes and wannabe champions.  In the end, all of the attention and hype about Phelps was deserved.  When is the last time we could say that about a horse?  It probably isn't a fair comparison, but it makes all of the attention and superlatives declaring Big Brown one of the best ever as ridiculous in hindsight.  If BB were to race long enough to prove himself, it might have ultimately been correct, although I doubt it. 

Now we've reached the point where the two most acclaimed and maybe best horses in America will dodge each other.  Can you imagine Phelps dodging anyone, or for that matter any of his challengers dodging him?  Horse racing is a sport, but at its top levels it is a different game than most athletic contests since it is ultimately a breeding business that uses racing as a means to an end. 

The point here?  I got to see a true champion over the last week.  Something that doesn't happen too often in a lifetime.  At the same time horse racing has devolved to a point where champions are hard to come by and seemingly unwilling to act that way even when so annointed.  So while I mourn the deterioration of the sport to it's current condition, I will have a hard time losing my cynicism about the next Big Brown.