A wonderful opportunity at Breeders' Cup


Sorry to see my fellow bloggers no longer use this. I am as guilty as the others, but thought there would be some exchange for Breeders’ Cup. I truly believe, in spite of the plastic surface, this could be a great betting Cup. I personally have never seen as poor a contingent of American horses, and I believe the foreign horses will win at least 50% of the races.

Zenyatta is to me the greatest underlay in years. I give her a two percent chance to win this race and that is being generous. The Europeans are dominant. I hope for a bridge jumper as I make it no better than 50 % that she will show.

The Friday card offers many overlays, as Breeders’ Cup always do, since the bias to the local horses will be very great, and most of them are duds. Again, Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup are the only days I bet across the board as the funny money makes some show prices quite lucrative. I look forward to hearing the take of some of my old friends, particularly Rave. Good Hunting.


New York Racing at it's finest!

I continue to be baffled how New York racing can survive. Presume you paid the outrageous Racing Form fee to take that home last evening. You meticulously worked over the form, making proper notations, speed, other factors, and developed a mental picture of the race as it develops. You arrive at the track today. There are 45, yes (45) scratches on the card. Was it a blizzard? perhaps a hurricane? No the temperature is 73. Of course they are off the turf, but in New York that is the rule more than the exception. Concern for the fan? You have got to be kidding!


A fascinating Belmont; another bird wins. Birdstone cements as a terrific sire. Pletcher and Velasquez prove once more they are collective idiots. Jockeys who get to run this distance once a year prove they have not a clue. Idiots continue to bet the last race and reek that which they deserve: NOTHING!

Why would you change the style of Dunkirk? Beats me. Suicide early fractions, Secretariat style. The wrong style for the horse, on the lead. A fifth quarter run in 23.4, and a final quarter run in 26, where only Summer Bird and Kent had not gone too fast, too soon.

Incredibly, a horse that should at best be 5-1 is even money. I heard one idiot scream "come on, Calvin" as the horses enter the gate. Translation: " Calvin I had nothing on you in the Derby at 50-1, but boy I loaded up today at even money. How delicious." If I was that stupid, I promise I would keep my mouth shut.

The saddest of races for me is this type. I know the public is wrong. I know there is great value, and I blow it. Oh, I had a few superfecta fractions, but that pay was disappointing. I had no exotics with Mine That Bird in the win or place positions, and still did not connect the dots. We all know in Triple Crown races, anything goes, so naturally the inept stewards were not going to dq anyone.

A trivia question for all experts. Has any Kentucky Derby horse previously won the Derby, ran second in the Preakness, and third in the Belmont?


A juicy looking Belmont

Albert Einstein's famous definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Help yourself with Mine That Bird. Far better horses than he have won the Kentucky Derby, run in the three Triple Crown races, and ended in failure in the Belmont. Now if you were getting fair odds, I would say go for it. You will get a serious underlay as all the fools saw the close in the Preakness and "all he needs is the extra distance of the Belmont". Horse puckey! He was not closing, Rachel was calling a taxi. She did not have a big race, she bounced. She hated the track as was expressed by Borel. She was on the way to another 20 length win and then hit the skids. The second best horse threw the jockey at the gate and then stumbled coming out of the gate. Even so he was second to the stretch when he too called a taxi. Mine That Bird has zero chance on winning the Belmont.

Charitable Man has a great chance. His time in the Peter Pan indicates a Belmont victory is immanent. Two previous horses have duplicated that, and gone on to upset victories in the Belmont. Charitable Man will be on or near the lead and that, my friends, is where most Belmont winners are located. Alan Garcia is a fine young rider, but young riders make mistakes. If he does not, this is a horse that makes me drool. He is my choice and 2-1 or more is an overlay of monster proportions.

Dunkirk? See the first sentence at the top. Pletcher cannot win Triple Crown races and he cannot win Breeders' Cup races. I believe I know why, but I leave that speculation to you. Pletcher did break his long losing streak in these races with a win by Rags to Riches. Dunkirk is a possibility. Trained by Pletcher, I expect second place or less. I will box him with Charitable Man but heavy in the other direction.

Happy Belmont!


A Memorable Preakness Is Wonderful For Racing!

Rachel Alexandra was everything I hoped she would be, and her Preakness victory was good for racing in the United States. The old fogies who cannot join the modern world helped make her a terrific overlay. It was incredible; there actually was more money bet on "the dried up hole of the Nile" for place and show than was on Rachel, subject to a last minute rush to the window by savvy horse players. If you come away with zero knowledge, know this; those who run on follytrack and beat nothings in California will never win a Triple Crown race, and will seldom be in the money. Amen!

I do not know if my friend, Rave, is correct when he claims altitude makes the difference for Mine That Bird. Living a mile high in Denver, I do know that athletes claim they cannot breath when they come here. What I do know is that the awful Beyers numbers are even worse when it comes to Sunland. They are 10-20 too low, and you can profit from that, just as you can profit by playing Tampa horses when they travel, Oaklawn horses when they travel and Fair Grounds horses when they travel. Thank you for being a fraud, with your Byers numbers; we need all the help we can get.

Now the Preakness was a woulda, shoulda, coulda for me; but I would not have done one thing different. This was going to be a two horse race and one of them was NOT Mine That Bird. Big Drama stood out as the true contender. His gate antics was a disaster, and he stumbled at the break, as if his misspent energy was not enough. Naturally, he had nothing left in the stretch. He runs second, I reap thousands, he runs third I reap thousands. He wins, my lifestyle changes dramatically. A small profit seems like a loss.

I adore Rachel Alexandra. I hope for the good of the horse, the connections pass on the Belmont. On the other hand, the publicity generated would be awesome. I look forward to the late summer and fall for this magnificent beast. Yes, Rave, she is indeed, a running little c....! Per usual, I wish I had said that first.

21Publish - Cooperative Publishing