OctavetheRave

Debate?  Only is you're a drooling nitwit.  Unfortunately, our esteemed Eclipse Committee has been known to embrace the occasional involuntary puddle, as was the case back in 2006 when they awarded the three-year-old prize to a dance-dodging rat named Bernardini over America's Champion Barbaro.

As much as that galled me, a Horse of the Year award to Zenyatta over Curlin would be an even bigger travesty.

Purely on performance, it isn't even close.  Zenyatta won exactly one race all year outside her California comfort zone, and only one on something other than plastic.  She never caught an off track, never tried turf, nor once tackled the boys, as Lady's Secret did in '86 when she won HOY.  (Note: The only other filly/mare to receive the honor, Azeri, had as her main competition that year a couple of comparative slugs named Precisionist and Turkoman.)  Prior to the Breeders' Cup, Zenyatta defeated a grand total of 30 horses in six starts, or an average of 5 per start, assuming you don't reduce from that number the ones she defeated multiple times. 

Curlin's five victories were on two different continents and four different race tracks.  He won in the slop despite not handling the surface.  His only defeat prior to The Cup was a maiden turf voyage in which he happened to catch not one, but two former Breeders' Cup Turf champions.  Prior to the Cup, he had defeated 44 horses in his six starts, 40% more per start than Zenyatta, and his year-end bankroll was a staggering three times higher than the filly's.

But even if every criterion that determined the award for HOY were dead even between the two, Curlin still should receive the recognition simply for showing-up.  Just think of what his presence added to the sport in 2008, then consider what a huge incentive this award might be for some other owner/trainer thinking of retiring his 3YO champion to the breeding shed? 

If it influences only one next year to change his mind and campaign his champion as a 4YO, that one could mean more for the sport of horse racing in 2010 than all the Eclipse awards combined.

Octave the Rave

When the Breeders' Cup Committee announced earlier this month the award of the 2010 event to Churchill Downs, my immediate and overwhelming reaction was, "Why now?  Why not wait a couple of weeks ‘til after this year's event and see how things go?"

It seems clear the reason was to quell all the negative feedback they were receiving on both the new structure and the polygrip from places like GreenbutGame.com - a close ally of NTRA Chief Executive Alex Waldrop - and to ensure the minions of "dirt" purists that the unprecedented, back-to-back awardings of the event to Santa Anita was more of an anomaly than a marriage to synthetics.

And I'll bet they were thumping themselves on the back that day for being so intuitive.  DOINK!

This morning, I'd like to bet those same geniuses are puking in their Eggs Sardu.  Astonishingly -- and in spite of what these same bozos have done over the past decade to turn the Breeders' Cup into a Weekend at Bernie's - synthetics not only has saved The Cup, it figures to elevate the event to a status few of us ever could have dreamed.  Check out some of these quotes:

"The whole game has opened up for us now." John Gosden, trainer of Raven's Pass.

"I think there is no doubt the synthetic surface is somewhere between turf and dirt. Therefore, I makes European trainers that much braver to take it on."  John Ferguson, racing advisor to Sheikh MoMo.

"(Synthetics) are bringing the two countries together, Europe and America; it's becoming a level playing field." Frankie Dettori, jockey of Raven's Pass.

These are but a smattering of quotes from this morning's dailies by European participants extolling the virtues of synthetics, and proclaiming in no uncertain terms that they'll be back next year with even bigger arsenals.  There was even one in The Courier Journal from Aiden O'Brien, trainer of vanquished sure-thing Soldier of Fortune, that "perhaps the Arc de Triomphe needs to consider moving its date back a few weeks!"

(Not that the Arc was to blame for Soldier of Fortune's defeat.  It was John Murtagh.  Again!  In my lifetime, I'd be hard-pressed to recall a worse ride.  In fact, Murtagh cost O'Brien two potential winners.  Go back and watch the tape of the Juvy Turf, where the margin of victory was a long neck.  Frankie D. is up on the 4-horse's neck, back perfectly flat, body motionless except for the arms driving to the wire.  Purely American.   Murtagh on the 3-horse looks like a drunken' f***ing cowboy, jumping up and down in the saddle, bouncing off the horse's back, doing his orchestral Miestro whip-flail.  Uniquely European ... and why guys as smart as Aiden O'Brien continue to use clowns like Murtagh utterly is beyond me.)

The good news from yesterday is that The Breeders' Cup is back, IN SPADES.  And when it arrives at Keeneland or Arlington in 2012 where the weather figures to be in the 50's or 60's, you won't even need to buy a Racing Form to do your Pick 6 ticket.

Just buy The Racing Post, toss all the Americans, and start from there!

Octave the Rave

My lifetime buddy, oft-time Derby partner, and legendary FG handicapper Peter Cannizzaro sent me an intriguing file on Pro-Ride this morning entitled "Winner's Lengths Behind."  As the name suggests, it is a series of Excel sheets that chart 46 of the highest quality races run-to-date at the current Oak Tree meet broken down by sprint and route; shows the lengths the winner was behind the leader at each point-of-call; and summarizes the winner's style as either: wire-to-wire; stalk; rally; or deep rally.  Here are the summary results:

SPRINTS ONLY (Sample Lot 27 Races):

Wire-to-Wire  -  (7 winners)  -  26 percent

Stalk -  (12 winners)  -  44 percent

Rally -  (7 winners)  -  26 percent 

Deep Rally - (1 winner)  -  4 percent

ROUTES ONLY (Sample Lot 19 Races):

Wire-to-Wire  -  (3 winners)  -  16 percent

Stalk -  (9 winners)  -  47 percent

Rally -  (4 winners)  -  21 percent 

Deep Rally - (3 winners)  -  15 percent

OVERALL

Wire-to-Wire  -  (10 winners)  -  22 percent

Stalk -  (21 winners)  -  46 percent

Rally -  (11 winners)  -  24 percent 

Deep Rally - (4 winners)  -  8 percent

Hope it helps ...

Octave the Rave

It's no secret that horses conditioned in Europe historically have a huge edge over ours at the Breeders' Cup.  The reasons are purely academic: they train in sand, run on courses that often resemble bogs, and typically must conquer the final, grueling 400 meters straight uphill!  As a result, it's not unusual to find a world-class, G1-type animal over there competing three times in a span of 30 days, when 30 days between races is the absolute minimum for our American counterparts.

So superior are they in condition that not even oppressive heat, something they rarely face in Europe, has managed to thwart their advantage.  The last time the BC was contested at Santa Anita was in 2003.  The high temperature that day reached 99 degrees!  Still, the Euros managed to sweep all three turf events, and five of the nine placings.  In the F&M Turf, Euros Islington and L'Ancresse ran one-two.  In the Mile, 3YO Euro filly Six Perfections prevailed.  And in the Turf Classic, Euro High Chapparel dead-heated with American Johar, with Euro Falbrav a neck back in third.

I just pulled-down the 10-day weather forecast for the greater L.A. area.  http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?wealocations=wc:USCA0638&q=Los+Angeles%2c+CA+forecast:tenday. The high temperature for Saturday is projected at 88, with light winds, and only a 5% chance of rain.  If the forecast holds, 88 degrees compared to 2003 will seem a cold snap to the Euros.

Some Euros.  Not all.  The ones who have been conned into trying the "dirt" because of its resemblance in performance to turf likely are in for the shock of a lifetime.  Here's why. 

To date, the one overwhelming knock on Santa Anita's new Pro-Ride surface is its propensity for absorbing heat. Reports last week had the temperatures at mid-afternoon on-track as much as 30 degrees warmer than the actual outside temperature.  No more finely tuned an athlete than Rafeal Bejarano had to be administered fluids between races, and was quoted in the press as saying, "it was like riding in hell."

[As an aside, am I the only one who finds it mind-boggling that of all the synthetic surfaces Santa Anita tested, and could have chosen, they picked the darkest one -- mindful that despite its "secret" formula, the overwhelming likelihood was that the "dark" stuff in the Pro-Ride mixture was rubber?  Have you ever felt an old tire in a junk yard at mid-afternoon in the dead of summer?  It'll take the skin off your hands!  Unbelievable ...]

Anyway, the more I think about the advantage California-based horses have had over the years at BC events held in the state, the more likely it seems that advantage will increase exponentially for S.A.-based horses who already have been exposed to these debilitating 115-120 degree on-track temperatures on "dirt."

Anyone interested in taking a piece of an all-Euro turf, all-SoCal "dirt" P6 ticket?

Octave the Rave

I'll tell you one thing our sport could use more of: Kenneth Ramseys.  Ramsey, you might recall, was the owner who stood-up at a gathering during the CD meeting over the revenue-sharing dispute with Twinspires.com and screamed, "Screw ‘em.  Let's boycott.  Let's shut-down the whole damn meet."

No owner stood to lose more over such a boycott than Kenneth Ramsey, yet he was willing to make the ultimate sacrifice rather than be bullied by a bunch of internet bookmakers.  Unfortunately, his fellow owners turned-out to be a bunch of spineless wimps, which is why the dispute continues to this day.

Here's a little heads-up on Mr. Ramsey that CLOCKER-1 shared with me.  Every time he wins a race at Keeneland, he hands the groom a hundred dollar bill, and the groom, in turn, hands Mr. Ramsey the reins.  Ramsey personally walks every winner into the winner's enclosure, then has his photo taken holding the reins.  After the photo, the groom rushes in to take back control of the horse.

Is he a beauty, or wot?

Octave the Rave