OctavetheRave

That's what the locals call the Post Position draw held each Wednesday before the Derby on 4th Street and broadcast on minimal tape delay by ESPN.  On TV, it may be like watching sheetrock hung, but live it is a can't miss no-brainer where every owner, trainer, celebrity, and wanna-be for the week is front and center.  Just a quickie I post each year at this time re the ritual that I suspect will never come to fruition, but that makes huge sense to me.

I think it would be great each year if instead of the lotto nature of the pull, PPs would be drawn in accordance with whatever system is in place to determine eligibility, in this case, graded earnings.  It would preclude contenders from being all-but-eliminated v. the 1, 19, and 20, and eliminate the pretenders from sucking-up by sheer luck the 8-12 primo positions, which invariably happens every year.

In addition, with my system, typically the Top 5 horses would break side-by-side, or close enough to each other to follow from Jump 1 out of the gate for the track announcer, fans on track, TV audience, and perhaps most important, the competing riders.

It just makes so much more sense to me than leaving something as critical as gate position to lotto luck.

Rave

What are the odds that a race horse degenerate like me, travelling alone, sitting at the bloody farthest end of Concourse C at massive Atlanta Hartsfield Airport with a 1-hour layover to Louisville might look across at Gate 50 and spot -- sitting all by himself, with no bag, no laptop, no reading material, and looking utterly bored to tears -- none other than the Commissioner of Racing himself, Jerry Bailey!  Bailey was waiting to board a plane to Lexington for an afternoon golf game (!), after which he was picking-up a car and driving back to Louisville.  To say the ensuing conversation was spirited, and that Jerry Bailey is as genuine and down to earth as he appears on TV, would be an understatement.  I wish I had time to give you the complete blow-by-blow, but I have an 11-year-old maniac due home any second, and this is always her first stop.  Ergo, the basics:

Bailey LOVES Colonel John.  His buddy videoed CJ's 57-and-change work and e-mailed it to his home in South Florida, and he thought it was "pure as the driven snow, and a winning move."  He had already tossed Big Brown completely, based on his inexperience, and especially because "a horse as special as Curlin wasn't able to do exactly what he'll be trying to do."  When I reminded him that there was a HUGE difference in the two ... that Curlin didn't have near the early lick of Big Brown ... he immediately relented.  I opined I thought he would run the identical race as Barbaro ... sit behind BBJ, Cowboy Cal, and Roussel's horse ... and make a sweeping move to the lead ... when he guffawed me!! Like, what?  Are you nuts?  No way ... no way any horse but maybe Black Jack will be in front of him early ... then recited ver batim the early fractions that both Recapturetheglory and Cowboy Cal had run -- to the fifth of a second!! -- such that by the time he was done he sounded like a guy making a HUGE case for a horse he had completely tossed from consideration.  Virtually every horse that followed was a similar tete-a-tete.  He really likes Court Vision underneath, loved the blinker move and the bullet work, which I HATE, and opined it looks to me like desperation this late in the game, and why the hell didn't Mott do it in the Wood, instead of waiting this late.  At which point -- you'll love this -- he calmly reminded me that it was he who had suggested removing the blinkers from Sea Hero only days before the Derby, and oh BTW, how did that work out?  (I'm back on Court Vision, thank you very much.)  He likes Matz' horse a lot, whom I've tossed, and when I opined that Mike Welsh slammed him, and said he was life and death to catch his maiden work mate the other morning, Bailey wasn't aware, but I could tell by his raised eyebrows that he has huge respect for Mike Welsh.  And he thinks Pyro's sitting on a monster race ... that all the "he's sore" stuff is a crock ... and that the horse, in retrospect, could be the biggest overlay in Derby history.  And that was his super:  Colonel John over Pyro, Court Vision, and Visionaire.  Was!  I'll be dying to hear his pre-race comments on Big Brown, and if his opinion was swayed in the least from our little chat.  (I mentioned Z Fortune, Gayego, Monba, and the filly as possible ticket fillers, and he had great reasons to disregard each from actual betting, while acknowledging that none completely would surprise him from the ticket.)  Finally, I said, "I even think Smooth Air has a shot," and he quickly countered with, "NO CHANCE!"  He said he'd love it for Benny Stutts, but that the horse wasn't good enough nor wanted the mile-and-a-quarter before he was sick ... and that he had NO CHANCE! 

At which point I shook his hand, thanked him, and headed back to my gate!

Rave

(Betcha can't tell I've been packed for three days and bouncing off the walls waiting to head-out to Louisville!)

Doubtless you also have received, or will receive shortly, an E-advertisment from the Daily Racing Form that includes the following heads-up:

Chats: Participate in a series of online chats this week with Andrew Beyer, Dan Illman and Mike Welsch. The schedule for these interactive chats is as follows:

• Andrew Beyer - Tuesday, April 29, 7-8 p.m. EST
• Dan Illman - Wednesday, April 30, 7-8 p.m. EST
• Mike Welsch - Thursday, May 1, 7-8 p.m. EST

 

Of the three above, I strongly recommend you tune-in to Mike Welch, and make notes on every nuance, nor matter how subtle.  Obviously, he can't come-out and slam any owner/trainer's horse on the eve of the Derby, but he'll provide plenty of clues on the ones to avoid, and the ones to key on, and he's been uncannily accurate in years past.  As for the other two, I might suggest that root canal you've been putting off.

Tagged at the end of the DRF E-advertisement was the following:

Blogs: Formblog and Cristblog will be going strong all week, with Steven Crist doing a "live-blog" of sorts on Derby Day. No, he won't be in Louisville ... but he'll be continuously updating Cristblog all day on Saturday.

Can anyone fathom the publisher of Golf Magazine missing The Masters?  Or the publisher of B.A.S.S. Magazine missing the BassMasters' Classic?  Ever the soulless slug for whom the sport always has been about gambling, and nothing more.

Rave

Here's my 2-cents for simplifying the Kentucky Derby eligibility standards each year:  Automatic berths for the Top 3 finishers in the year-of-race G1 preps; and Top 2 finishers in the following selected year-of-race G2 preps:

The Florida Derby (G1)

The Santa Anita Derby (G1)

The Wood Memorial (G1)

The Goodyear Blue Poly (formerly Totoya Blue Grass) (G1)

The Louisiana Derby (G2)

The Arkansas Derby (G2)

The San Felipe (G2)

The Illinois Derby (G2)

Multiple qualifiers and defections would be filled by the Top 2 finishers in the (G2) Lane's End; the (G2) Lexington Stakes; and (G2) Rebel Stakes, in that order of priority.  Here's what the Derby field would look like based on this extremely simplistic system:

(*) Multiple Qualifier

Pyro

Big Brown

Colonel John

Court Vision

Tale of Ekati

Gayego (*)

Z Fortune (*)

Smooth Air

RecapturetheGlory

War Pass (declared)

Bob Black Jack (*)

Monba

Cowboy Cal

Georgie Boy  (declared)

Adriano (Alternate via Lane's End)

Halo Najib (Alternate via Lane's End) (new)

Behindthebar (Alternate via Lane's End) (declared)

Samba Rooster (Alternate via Lane's End) (new)

Tomcito (new)

Kentucky Bear (new)

My Pal Charlie (new)

Golden Spikes (new)

Coast Guard (new)

On the bubble:  Sierra Sunset and King's Silver Sun

Out: Anak Nakal, Z Humor, Eight Belles, Salute the Sarge, Visionaire, Big Truck, Denis of Cork.

Simplicity?  Lemme axe ya: if a 3YO can't hit the board in a G1 prep, nor run 1^st or 2^nd in a G2 prep, what the heck business does he have running in The Kentucky Derby anyway?

Rave

We all have them, some more worthy of attention than others.  I just read an interesting one by Al Stall, Jr.  For those who don't know, Al Stall, Sr. was a prominent Louisiana businessman, lifelong horse owner, and head of the LA Racing Commission for decades.  Stall, Sr. is to LA racing what the late Bob Lewis was to CA racing.  Al, Jr. was a fixture in the track kitchen on Saturday morning from the time he was in a stroller.  If ever a kid was groomed for the game, it was Al, Jr. 

CLOCKER-1 tells a story about Al, Jr. in the clocker's stand at FG one morning when an unraced, unknown two-year-old blazed-in-a-blur past the finish line following a 3F work.  While everyone was whooping about the work, Stall leaned into CLOCKER-1 and whispered, "You saw it, right?  The knee?  Left-front?  Bad ..." 

Bill said his jaw dropped!

Here's what Stall said to a local reporter from his barn at CD only hours before Colonel John's most recent work:

"I think Colonel John looks like a standout," the trainer says in his New Orleans drawl. "He looks really comfortable here. When's his work? Today? If he turns in a ‘Barbaro' type work, or even a ‘semi-Barbaro' type work, I'll be all in. He just looks really good to me. He's got dirt all over him top and bottom. He just looks like a Derby horse to me. He's big, long, and stretchy, and just has a smooth way of going...I like (trainer) Eoin Harty's spot."

In fact, Colonel John's work was the fastest 5F drill by a Derby hopeful since Barbaro in 2006!

Rave

As most of you know, our esteemed Editor-in-Chief is a statistics junkie, and an historian nonpareil in the making.  He's also a poly-maven, and shortly before the Keeneland meet began, he was kind enough to share with me the poly-stats from Keeneland's initial year on the new surface.  ALL the poly stats!  Captured below are merely the Top 20 sires from a list of 644 sires (!) whose progeny ran on the surface last year:

This list proved invaluable as a handicapping tool, especially when it came to ‘capping the plethora of two- and three-year-old 1^st'er races that make-up such a large portion of the Keeneland Spring meet.  Moreover, they helped point-out very early in the meet another phenomena that proved absolutely golden: the old "horse for course" angle, and it was positively uncanny @ Keeneland.  Many of the bombs that others on here deemed un-betable on recent horrific form, in fact, had a "hidden" race over this same surface a year ago that was exceptional.  Conversely, many of the superstars who ate the frog at odds-on had a similar "hidden" race over this same surface a year ago that was dreadful.  Where ever this anomaly occurred throughout the meet, far more often than not the subject horse simply repeated his previous form.

Granted, comparing performances over shredded polyester clothing left over from the 70's mixed with old tires and bees wax to those on Mother Earth clearly is a stretch, but neither can it be completely overlooked.  Rarely, if ever, do horses who have shown in the past an affinity for a particular racing surface throw a clunker first time back over that same surface.  As well, the converse also is true: rarely do horses who have shown a dislike for a particular surface suddenly reverse that form first time back on that same surface.  Because the Derby always previews the CD Spring Meet, every horse who has run previously on the CD surface is making his first start back on that surface.  Following is the scorecard for this year's contingent:

Not much in the way of usable data, I agree, beyond the fact that you could completely disregard every shard of handicapping data that comes down-the-pipe this week, simply box the five undefeated-at-CD horses on this list and be done with it, and look like a bloody genius after-the-fact.

Rave

Yesterday, CLOCKER-1 called to inform me he finally had gotten a golf game with Garrett Gomez.  After riding the entire card @ Keeneland yesterday, including the last two winners, Gomez and little bro hit Brookhaven for a long awaited 9-hole match.

With Gomez mainly on the West Coast and in NY, the two barely know each other.  However, they know OF each other's golf games.  Gomez is a serious player whose woods were made special by TaylorMade, and whose Titleist/Volpe wedges and Scotty Cameron putter have "Go Go" factory-inscribed on the soles.  Brother Bill's golf game is more an anuity than a pasttime, with so many riders who play, play badly, and won't get out the golf cart without a wager, typically of the sort that would make the rest of us gag on the first tee.

Bill just naturally assumed Gomez was looking for action when he called to make the game.  Instead, on the first tee he informed my brother "that he doesn't gamble!"  After eight holes they were dead even.  On the 9th tee, Bill asked Gomez if he wanted to play the last hole for five bucks.  To which Gomez replied:

"Nah, I don't gamble," after which he hit driver/7-iron to six feet, made birdie, and won the match!

Whatever else you might think of Garrett Gomez as a rider, you can rest assured that if he doesn't gamble on the golf course, he doesn't gamble.  Period!  And isn't that refreshing ...

Rave

I read recently where a racing scribe opined that picking the Derby winner was "mostly luck, and a flip of the coin."  In my lifetime, I can't remember a observation on the game with which I disagree more completely.  To the contrary, no event in the entire panacea of the sport provides a higher premium of return on a horse player's knowledge, experience, and lessons-learned than the Kentucky Derby.  The reason, of course, is the tens of millions worldwide poured into the windows on horses who have no chance of winning by folks who have no bloody clue, don't want one, and won't bet another horse race until this same time next year.

And despite the fact that the Derby itself is still 10 days away, Kiddie Corner refugee Down-the-Shi**er Dan, among others, already is busy writing his final ticket.

As anyone with even half a brain should know of the modern-day, 20-horse Kentucky Derby, narrowing the focus on the one horse on whom to place the bulk of the bankroll on top, and those to put underneath, cannot begin in earnest until after the post position draw.  One of my least memorable Derbies was the millennium edition, and a horse named ANEES, whom I began touting the second I landed in Louisville.  After he drew the #1 post position, all my local boyz were lining-up with condolences.  Frankly, I was unfazed.  I thought he was good enough to win from anywhere.

The year 2000 also was our first with box seats on the finish line, among the best seats in the house until about ... oh ... 30 minutes before Derby post when everyone you know and love and can't say no to who doesn't have a box on the finish line decides to join you for the race.  In 2000, our box that seated 8 was standing 16, me included, which was great, until I heard "They're at the post ...," at which point all the wives and girlfriends immediately stood on the chairs!

About the only thing I can tell you with absolute clarity about ANESS in the actual running of the 126^th Kentucky Derby is that Mary Ellen McConnell of Versailles, KY has a spectacular ass. 

Oh yeah: and that he got exactly one call.

While the masses were still celebrating FuPeg's victory, I was beating feet to the nearest television for a close-up of the replay.  As you know, the replay of every Derby begins with the head-on of the break, then quickly shifts to the normal pan view.  When the replay flashed on the in-house monitors, my jaw dropped.  My hand to the Big Guy, the #1 starting gate for the Kentucky Derby was lined-up INSIDE the rail at the top of the stretch.  By inside, I mean had Cory Nakatani on Anees run a perfectly straight path for the first 50-60 yards, he'd have found himself in the infield.  Instead, here was the Equibase Chart line on Anees:

ANEES swerved out at the start ....

No shit!  Only the horse he swerved into outweighed him by a few hundred pounds, and he bounced off the rail anyway - five times, to be exact, before the field had crossed the finish line for the first time.  Totally and completely eliminated in the first 220 yards!  Since 2000, the #1 post has been adjusted somewhat, but it is still precariously close to the rail.  Even Sedgefield who had as flawless a break last year as is humanly possible from the 1-hole wound-up steadying the entire length of the stretch to the first turn.  My point simply is this: if anyone other than Recapturetheglory, Big Brown, or Bob Black Jack draws the inside slot, you can make your win bets with me, all you want, and I'll double the final odds!  In light of the fact that the last horse even to hit the board in the Derby from the 1-hole was Risen Star 20 years ago, and the last horse to win was Ferdinand back in 1986 - thank you, Machine -- I'll take my chances.

Your final decision still shouldn't end with post position draw, a lesson we all learned well from the complete fiasco that was the 2006 Breeders' Cup on this same race track.  The way the track is playing throughout the day MUST be taken into account before you step-up to the windows for the Derby.  Fortunately, CD typically is one of the fairest racing surfaces in the nation, notwithstanding the recent trend by Butch and Crew to have the surface lightning fast on Derby Day, for reasons that make perfect sense: who doesn't want to see horses run really fast?  How many of those 140,000 rednecks who jam NASCAR every Sunday even would bother to pack the Styrofoam if the lads were driving in an oval at 82 mph?  Even though the surface typically is supersonic, it doesn't necessarily favor speed.  Often, quite the contrary is true.

The fastest Derby Day surface in modern history was 2001 when in the first three races, two 20-year-old track records were broken, and a third was tied - by a 3YO filly!  You might recall that also was the year Manarchos ran one of the fastest Derbies in history, breaking the magical 2-minute barrier, and that he did it from dead last when first Songandaprayer, then Balto Star, and finally Congaree gagged like maggots; a total rat named Invisible Ink managed to pick-up the place money; and the winner himself looked like a drunken sailor on Bourbon Street for the final 1/16^th of a mile.

Do this, all you Dean Beyer disciples: watch the replay of Manarchos' 2001 Derby victory -- mindful that it was run on the fastest Derby surface in modern history -- then watch a replay of Barbaro's in 2006 over a glib, dead-tiring track, and tell me why anyone of sound mind would have an iota of regard for "speed figures" produced by a man who saw Monarchos' victory as the absolute best in Kentucky Derby BSFs history @ 116, and Barbaro's practically pedestrian @ 111? 

When Orcas hang glide ...

Short of that, here's the pernt: the way the track plays early on Derby Day typically is the way it will play for the Derby itself.

Come next Wednesday, all pre-race preparations will be complete.  Assuming by then your choices have narrowed to a select few, I strongly would advise you to keep-open your options until the critical factors of post draw and track condition can be factored into your final analysis.  I promise, if you do just those two things each year, you'll find your success rate at this greatest of all sporting events increase dramatically.

If I stumble onto any worthwhile scoop in Louisville, I'll try to pass it on.  In the meantime, do you know what every single person in the world flying to this year's Kentucky Derby will be praying for, including me?

Smooth Air!

Rave

... or, "How I Spent my Weekend Between Races!"  (Not bad for an amateur, ey?)

• I got five bucks says later this week, Dr. Larry Bramlage will announce that War Pass' injury is far worse than the initial X-rays revealed; that he has had this injury for some time, thus explaining his recent form; that normal horses would have a problem merely galloping on such an injury; and that for War Pass to have finished second in a Gr. 1 with this type of injury makes him one of the most courageous horses ever to look through a bridle. At which point he will conclude his remarks, and Nick Zito promptly will follow with the announcement that War Pass has been retired to stud! Any takers?
• A horse named STERWINS has been in my Stable Mail for a month. If you watched his last three from FG, you know he caught bulky fields and traffic problems, yet 100 yards past the wire was clear in each. If you can barely read a Racing Form, you could see that in each of his last six races @ 8.5F or less, he made-up ground through the lane, such that the Ben Ali Stakes @ 9F, particularly with its small field, was right up this horse's alley. Even more telling, Brisnet had him ranked 2^nd behind Go Between on Prime Power, a direct reflection of the extraordinary depth of talent at FG this past winter, further evidenced by the fact that even mid-tier horses coming from that meet have been stepping-up and winning like crazy everywhere. My point is this: on this particular day, against that particular field, I feel certain I would have bet-out on STERWINS had they been running on sawdust, which is why I continue to be miffed by all the poly-aching. As for the inexplicable mystery of how this horse who shouldn't have been a dime over 5-1 wound-up paying $28.00, I got some insight into that wonderful dichotomy last night when I read the following.
• Horseplayer Pro blogger comment: "I hate to keep talking about this damn Keeneland form thing but the many people who use Beyer Speed Figures, Thorograph, and Ragozins are beside themselves that the numbers have not been consistent or successful. They are having zero success at Keeneland. This is not a shot at anybody on this blog but the big bettors at Monmouth and Meadowlands don't want to handicap, they want the work to be done for them."
• If there's anyone on here who even remotely resembles these "big M&M bettors" - and I doubt seriously there is -- I don't even want to know you. From the first day my Dad introduced me to this game, the overwhelming appeal has been figuring-out the puzzle. Getting paid to do it, to me, always has been lagniappe. That said, I tend to think there's a great deal of truth in the underlined observation. It certainly explains all the pissing and moaning about synthetics, as well as horses like STERWINS going-off double digits. It's what my Dad used to call the "married to the numbers" syndrome, and what he always cautioned against, TO WIT: WTF do you do when you have no numbers, or when the numbers go bad? Quit playing? That's what I'm hearing on here and elsewhere, all across the country where ever synthetics have been installed. I know this much: when the day comes that I have to rely on Andy Beyer, Len Ragozin, or any swinging dick to tell me on whom to bet my money, that's the day I find a new avocation. In fact, the Grim Reaper will find me long before that day ever comes.

Rave

"What's up with Gulfstream?  Opening day looks like a continuation of Calder!"

HPdaily.com blogger - January, 2008

***********************************************************

I wish I could remember who among us made the above-captioned observation.  There was a time not long ago when the Gulfstream winter meeting was one of the nation's best, and the pride of Florida racing.  I used to count the days ‘til it came.  Now, I can't wait ‘til it ends, so embarrassing has it become.  Granted, revenues from VLTs have been disappointing again this year, but rather than explain the demise, to me it merely galvanizes the underlying problem. 

In 2007, these disappointing revenues caught Gulfstream's newly-installed management team by shock.  There was little they could do in mid-meet.  Not this year.  This year, they had plenty of time to prepare for the meet, and to find new and creative ways to keep the meet dynamic and appealing despite the smaller-than-expected VLT-augmented purses.  Instead, the only significant change before this week was the utterly moronic move of the hugely successful Holy Bull Stakes to the middle of April, just three weeks before the Derby.  That move, alone, tells you all you need to know about the level of racing acumen within Gulfstream's management hierarchy.

About a month ago, I fired-off a scathing e-mail to the Gulfstream "brain trust," expressing my frustration as a 20+ year Floridian at the extent to which this once great meet had become a caricature. The thrust of the e-mail called into focus the team's abject complacency, and inexplicable failure to do anything even remotely different or creative to enhance the product's appeal for both participants and fans alike.  In short, I opined that the whole damn bunch were stealing their paychecks. 

Apparently, I wasn't the only person to express these same sentiments.

Last week, Gulfstream reintroduced the popular "baby races" to its weekly faire, albeit 2.5F as opposed to Keeneland's 4.5F.  Still, it was a welcomed edition.  Today, the entire card was green.  All turf races!  Another terrific innovation.  These are precisely the kinds of things Gulfstream's brass should have done from the outset of the meet - or rather, should have known they had to do - in order to keep the meet appealing, instead of waiting ‘til the bloody last minute.  As is, it's just so much perfume on a pig, as the lack of interest today clearly points-out.

Last Sunday's 9-race rat card full of $6,250 claiming races did $4.1M in total revenues, for a per race average of about a half-million a race.  Today's 11-race, all grass card should have dwarfed that amount.  Instead, total handle was a paltry $5.5M, or about the same per race average of a half million.

This is the same track that did almost $20M on Florida Derby day, proving rather conclusively that the Gulfstream crowd vanished en masse the day Keeneland opened.  I made two bets on the entire 11-race grass card today, and one was my buddy's horse.

Hopefully, the brain trust at Gulfstream will learn from its mistakes, return the Holy Bull to its original slot, and use the off-season to find new and creative ways to return the Gulfstream winter meeting to its rightful place of respectability.

Octave-the-Rave

Palm Beach Gardens, Florida

In case you were planning on taking-off Friday and ejoying the terrific Keeneland card today, I got the following e-mails from Brother Bill via his hand-held:

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6:09 a.m.: Problems at Keeneland. Sprinkler system out of control at top of stretch, drenching both poly and turf at 3/16th. Earthquake in area may have triggered sprinkler.

6:45 a.m.: 636 and the water has been turned off, track still not open, little track down under where I first started is a freaking mad house, 200 horses on a 5/8 training poly track. Hope we get open up here.  Will be real busy for the morning.    5.4 magnitude quake.

*******************************

I'm sure Toby Turrell will have a further update later on this morning.

Rave

... about the brain trust at Keeneland.  Get this.  

One of the lead articles in DRF tomorrow concerns the precipitous 17 percent drop-off in handle through the first eight days of the Keeneland meet compared to last year.  Following is a quote from Keeneland spokesperson Jim Williams:

"We're truly at a loss to give a full explanation," Williams said. "We've looked closely at the quality of racing and believe it's been top-notch. We've noted that there is a difference in scheduling in California now that eliminates one day a week [Wednesday], and obviously they're a major simulcast market for us. But overall, this really has us back on our heels for an explanation."

Surely, Mr. Williams can't be serious?  Surely, it isn't possible that no one in the entire management hierarchy of Keeneland Race Course knows what every person reading this piece knows like clockwork: that the drop-off in handle is due entirely to the tens of thousands of Brisbet/Twinspires customers who can't bet the Keeneland meet via the internet, and must phone-in their bets, something many folks just won't do.  Even those who try can count on waiting for a live operator.  Weekends are a joke.  If you aren't ready to wager 5-7 minutes before post there's no sense even calling.

Like I said, this can't be.  No group of human beings placed in charge of a business that generates hundreds of millions can be so collectively dead-from-the-neck-up.  Instead, I suspect they'd rather embarrass themselves in print - as this article certainly does - than give Brisbet/Twinspires even a shard of gratuitous ink, much less the kind Twinspires doubtless would use as leverage in any future negotiations.

If ever a scenario captured in microcosm the cancer responsible for 90 percent of racing's ills, this is it. Twinspires is based in Louisville.  Lexington and Keeneland Race Course are less than 75 miles away.  They've been neighbors for 100 years, yet operate like cold-war enemies.  Worse, the industry they share in common is the 3^rd largest in the entire state of Kentucky, yet no one in state Government has the wherewithal even to attempt mediation, much less enact legislation, despite the tens of millions in tax dollars wafting down a black hole.

What chance does this sport stand of ever extracting itself from the primordial ooze of collective autonomy when 100-year-old next-door neighbors can't even get their shit together?

Rave

Will do ... and that's a promise ... only before you buy that hat, you might want to read Toby Turrell and CLOCKER-1's report on TOMCITO'S work today!

Ouch!!

Rave

The reason I've steered-clear of the "poly" debate v. Keeneland is because I thought I was the only one besides Jeremy Plonk who preferred it to the old KEO Speed Wagon.  By preferred, I mean in my opinion it towers over the old surface, and for the very reasons Jarod (aka McCarron) so adroitly points out in his Blue Plastics piece, foremost among them the mutual payouts.

While the old dirt surface at Keeneland always favored early speed, toward the end of its reign it became an absolute joke.  Whenever I read or hear someone lambasting the new synthetic racing surface, two words immediately jump to mind:

Sinister Minister!

As patently ridiculous as was last year's Blue Grass Stakes with Teuflesberg going 1:17 for ¾'s and staggering through the lane, it pales in comparison to the absurdity of that little gray sprint-only SoCal rat winning the same race a year earlier by a landing strip.  More than any, that performance epitomizes what the old surface had become; why handicapping it had become a one-dimensional joke; why the typical mutual payout more resembled Bay Meadows despite fields every bit as full and competitive as they are today; and why something had to be done about it, polytrack notwithstanding.

Nor do I  buy into the argument that the best horse never wins; and again, for the identical reasons that Jarod points out.  In fact, given the level of acumen on these pages, if by now you haven't figured-out that Keeneland is an island unto itself; if, by now, you haven't figured-out how to handicap the surface based on its singularly unique proclivities; then there can be only one plausible explanation:

You're one of the tens of thousands of regular horse players who still handicaps and bets 3 or 4 race meets a day; knows a little bit about each, but not enough about any one in particular to do anything more each day than piss your money down a black hole; and who make this such a great game.

And if you are among the 80 percent of regular horse players the world over who still can't watch a horse race without action, and who actually believes that "handicapping" is a 5-minute perusal of a subject race's PPs in the DRF, God bless you!  Only, pissing and moaning about synthetic surfaces, or anything else in the sport for that matter, is an aggravation you really should spare yourself.  Instead, you'd be far better served v. your avocation to come to terms with the immutable reality that your role in this sport is to hand your money over to the other 20 percent of your pari-mutual competitors who concentrate exclusively on one of those 3 or 4 meets you bet each day and who know it backwards and forwards, and just have fun doing it.

Rave

DON'T HOLD BACK dwelt at the start, advanced to reach contention on the turn, then faltered in the drive.  -  Official Chart

Right!

For my Left Coast buddy The Right Reverend Robert who bristles at the very idea that jockeys and trainers conspire to stiff-the-shit out of ... oooops, sorry ... to "give" a young horse a race -- and anyone else so inclined -- I suggest you watch a replay of today's 6^th race at Gulfstream Park, and a horse ironically named Don't Hold Back.  (I also suggest you add this horse to your Stable Mail, cuz he's a runnin' sumbich!)

If there are 10 ways for a rider to make sure a young horse gets something out of his first real-life experience without coming close to hitting the board, Eddie Castro does about eight of them, starting with backing him out of the gate - so badly, in fact, that you won't even see this horse for the first 3.5 furlongs of the race.  When he does show up, it's more like a gray streak.  And even though it appears in the pan view as if Castro is cowboying him, in the head-on he looks more like Roberto Duran: hands of stone!  The horse is doing it completely on his own.  In short order, Don't Hold Back goes from 10 lengths last to fifth coming out of the turn, at which point it actually gets comical. 

I guess Castro had no idea how much ground he had made-up, nor how close he had gotten to the lead pack, but when he realizes he still has a ton of horse under him despite the scenic tour of South Beach, he launches into reverse mode with one of the worst Jerry Bailey chicken-wing impressions of all time.   Just for good measure, he jerks the horse's head to the left in mid-stretch to avoid exactly what I have no clue since there wasn't a hint of traffic in front of him, at which point the horse disappears from view.  When he shows up again it's in the head-on of the horses crossing the wire.  Despite the fact that Don't Hold Back is still a good 50-60 yards from the wire, Castro is standing straight-up in the saddle!

If this reads like a scathing indictment of Eddie Castro, that was not my intent.  To the contrary, any rider this comically inept at stiffing a horse clearly hasn't had much practice!

Rave

" ... it's how you finish!"

That age-old, time-honored observation holds sway in golf - i.e., the back nine on Sunday at Augusta National; baseball - i.e., the NY Mets, circa 2007; all sports, and life itself.  It has particular significance in the sport of horse racing, as I and others on here have been pounding home from Day 1 of these pages, yet routinely have found countered and remanded - i.e., War Pass and Indian Blessing - by our young Mavens of the Sport either who didn't believe us, or just didn't get it.

Following Gayego's victory yesterday in the Arkansas Derby, winning rider Mike Smith and winning trainer Paulo Lobo were interviewed apart from each other. Neither had a clue about the other's immediate reaction to Gayego's run.  Here's what each said:

Smith:  "We set some fractions.  He did the dirty work and finished that final quarter well."

Lobo:  "I think he did a lot of things today.  First of all, he tracked a very fast pace for the track and he finished very well, first time on the dirt."

For anyone with an abiding understanding of the game, Smith and Lobo's observations were both poignant and predictable.  Every great rider from the dawn of time and every conditioner of young horses worth his salt knows when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the only thing that matters is conquering the great unknown: that final, daunting, and completely mysterious extra furlong where champions are crowned, and pretenders are relegated to the small print of history's archives.  In short, that it's all about "how you finish."

FTR, I excerpted Smith and Lobo's quotes from the Daily Racing Form.  Like our young JNs, clearly Mr.'s Crist and Beyer would be better served this time of year to do a bit less writing, and a whole lot more reading, starting with their own publication!

Rave

How often has this happened to you?  A horse pops-up in your Stable Mail on a Saturday when you have an afternoon golf game; or a Sunday with a big family outing planned; or a workday that you're slammed and can't get to a computer; he's 12-1 in the ML; you bet him W&P that morning, in advance, then check the results that night, only to discover that he paid $7.20 to win and $3.80 to place!  Or worse: that he ran up the track @ 5/2, odds so low you never would have bet him in the first place, and you feel like a complete idiot.

If the folks at Twinspires.com can work-out the kinks, those days could be gone forever.

My buddy Mike Berry, owner and managing partner of Acclaimed Racing Stable, was one of several Twinspires.com account holders chosen to participate in a unique pilot wagering program that would allow customers to place advance wagers with an odds-based, "go - no go" condition.  The program's primary beneficiary are the thousands of regular horse players who hold-down 9-5 jobs, place bets before they go to work, then check the results when they get home.

In simplest form, the program gives the account holder the option of canceling the wager if the horse's actual odds one minute before post are below his acceptable minimum, as set by the bettor at the time of the wager.  For example, if the horse is 10-1 in the ML, and you think anything less than 5-1 makes him an underlay, you can instruct the computer to "no go" the bet if the horse's odds are below 5-1 with one-minute to actual post time.  The computer simply cancels the bet, and returns the wagered amount to your account.

Since virtually all tracks these days post "probable" payouts for exactas and DDs, the program even will allow the bettor to determine in advance his minimum acceptable payouts for those wagers based on their prices one minute prior to post.

Presumably!  Ergo, the current test marketing, and already my buddy "The King" had a problem yesterday with an advance wager he made as part of the study.  Hopefully, the company will manage to work through the kinks in the software, and soon will be able to offer this unique option to its clientele.

Rave

Last, but certainly not least, I timed all the babies. Let's hope getting a leg up on the 2-year-olds leads to some future profit when they enter the starting gate for an actual race.

Clocker Toby Turrell - Horseplayer Pro

Toby, typical bulls**t every year @ Keeneland w/the babies: those with blinkers win 75% of the races, only the blinkers aren't reported in the PPs, which kills a lot of P3s and P4s. Is there any way when you make your report to note which babies worked with the shades?  That would be a serious jump start.

Comment/request from The Judge to Clocker Toby Turrell

*******************************************************************

Shortly after the only 2YO equipped with blinkers in Keeneland's first baby race of the year dusted the field, I wrote an e-mail to Rogers Beasley expressing the same sentiment as the Judge.  Clearly this non-reporting of blinkers on 1^st time starters at time of entry is a loophole in the system that never was meant to be, and that trainers have been exploiting for years.

He wrote back saying, "they'd look into it, but probably not until after the meet has concluded."

First blinkers on any young horse is a huge angle, particularly sprinting.  On 2YOs going 4.5 furlongs, it's gigantic.  I don't know with certainty that the Judge's 75 percent winning rate is correct, but I wouldn't bet a dime against it.

If you're a horizontal player, you might want to take five minutes and drop Keeneland a line about this flaw in the system.  ([email protected])  You have nothing to lose; it's a quick, simple, painless fix for Keeneland; and they already have demonstrated a genuine willingness to listen to reason, and respond accordingly.

Short of getting these 1^st shades reported in the PPs, just keep in mind the angle when the babies parade on the track.

Rave

I don't believe what I just saw! 

Steven Crist's latest blog, that is!  Seems Mr. Crist was more impressed this past weekend with Take of Ekati than he was Colonel John.  In fact, he contends that ToE's 93 BSF was suspect compared to Colonel John's 95 because while Tale of Ekati "chased" unusually fast fractions, Colonel John closed from 9^th into unusually slow fractions. 

What?  Excuse me?  Does that make a lick of sense to anyone? 

Granted, Mr. Crist is universally renowned for his East Coast bias, and his penchant for seeing every thing through Broadway binoculars.  But this borders on the inane.  For starters, ToE "chased" nothing.  He sat in the catbird seat with daylight behind War Pass and the Rabbit, and was fully four lengths behind War Pass when they turned for home.  Four lengths in arrears turning for home, to me, barely qualifies as stalking, much less "chasing."  And while he managed to make-up those four lengths and win, it was only because the horse in front of him was looking for a place to lie down!  ToE's "winning" final 3/8ths was a staggering 40.82!  Folks, conventional dirt racing surfaces can only get so slow.  They cannot magically turn to quicksand overnight, and those are quicksand fractions.

Meanwhile, Colonel John found himself behind eight other horses after a ¾ mile fraction of 1:11.3 on a track where the three "dirt" sprints on the same card registered two 1:07s and a 1:08 for the same distance.  At that and despite the fact that the two horses who loped 1-2 around the track early took off like rockets and virtually sprinted the final 3/8ths, he nonetheless managed to pass not just the six horses in front of him who also were sprinting, but also the two early loafers in a ridiculous final 3/8ths of :35 and not much change. Despite being blocked!

Look, I'm as East Coast biased as they come, but on Angel Dust I couldn't have put my name to something as obtuse and ridiculous as what Mr. Crist wrote, nor with a gun to my head could I find anything remotely rational to justify being "more impressed" with a horse who ran his final 3/8ths of a mile 28 lengths slower than another.

Could you?

I just don't think Mr. Crist has near the grasp on the game that most people just naturally take for granted, given his position, and this blog is just the latest example.

Octave-the-Rave

If you weren't around in 1988 and might be wondering how Louie Roussel, III, wound-up being dubbed "Screwy Louie" by the Louisville media, here's a clue:

"War Pass, Big Brown, it doesn't matter. We're going to the front."

Roussel made that statement to Horseplayer Pro's Joe Kristufek in an interview following Recapturetheglory's scintillating win in the Illinois Derby.  Most trainers' tongues would fall out before making such a proclamation prior to an overnight handicap, never mind the most important horse race on the planet.  Not Lil' Louie. Par for the course for a guy who loves the spotlight, and whom the spotlight loves back for his penchant for saying whatever happens to pop into his head, regardless of circumstance or consequence.

As soon as I'm done here I intend to e-mail my former schoolmate and 25-year banker and suggest he contact Target Stores about sponsoring Recapturetheglory in this year's Derby.  It's perfect.  All he has to do is send them a set of his black silks and have them silk screen their giant, red-and-white BULL'S EYE logo on the back!

Rave

I received the following e-mail only minutes ago:

Dear Bud:

In regard to your e-mails of April 4 and 5, I agree with you.  Therefore, as of this Wednesday our post times for the first race will be at 1:10 p.m., and every thirty minutes thereafter.  On Toyota Bluegrass day and Coolmore Lex day, we will adjust accordingly for television.  In the future I personally will contact all major racing secretaries to attempt to avoid as much conflict as possible for our fans.

Sincerely,

W. B. Rogers Beasley

Director of Racing

Keeneland Race Course

Ed. Note:  I wouldn't know Mr. Beasley from Adam, nor he me.  In fact, my e-mails were with Jim Goodman in the Racing Secretary's Office, who saw fit to share them with the Director.  For all the well-deserved criticism we level at management for its autonomy and wholesale disregard for the regular horse player, clearly there are pockets of hope for the game someday coming together for the common good.  What we need are more men like Mr.'s Beasley and Goodman.

Rave

Following the Santa Anita Derby, Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens was asked if he wanted to change his Top 5 Derby list of Pyro, Big Brown, Colonel John, Visionaire, and Court Vision in view of this past weekend's results. 

Instead, he stood pat.

Chances are, one of those five horses tops your Derby list, as well.  Point in fact, all five stand to benefit, and benefit greatly, from the presence of War Pass in the starting line-up, perhaps none more than Big Brown.  With War Pass in the race, his strategy becomes crystal clear: stalk and pounce, the strategy that has produced more Derby winners than all other strategies combined.  Without War Pass, I just can't see this beast conceding the early lick to horses like Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory when he's just so much faster, and likely would have to be strangled rather than rated.

Clearly, all the committed late runners are praying for War Pass' presence in the starting line-up, for reasons far beyond the race itself.  Check-out this quote by Eddie Dellahoussaye, excerpted from the Big Blog Page's Kim French's sensational, upcoming retrospective on Risen Star's 1988 Triple Crown campaign:

"My personal opinion, " said Dellahoussaye, "is that Louie (trainer Louie Roussel, III) trained him too hard for the Derby and took the speed out of him. He gave him a lot of tough gallops and this horse was a fast galloper. He just never had the turn of foot that day and when he came through the stretch, he was kind of grinding it out. Louie realized his mistake after the Derby and started sharpening his speed. He did a sensational training job for the rest of the Triple Crown."

With the presence of Winning Colors and Forty Niner in the '88 Derby, clearly Roussel expected a speed duel, and lightening early fractions, and chose to train Risen Star more for "bottom" ... for endurance ... expecting the early leaders to kill each other off, and come back to him.  Instead, they cruised 1-2 around the track, and the best Risen Star could manage was third, despite the fact that he was the vastly superior race horse.

Doubtless the connections of Pyro, Colonel John, Visionaire and Court Vision will be waiting with bated breath for Nick Zito's decision on War Pass.  If he starts, as I suspect he will, my guess is all four horses will train to their one-run strengths with lots of long gallops punctuated by a couple of one-minute 5/8ths breezes.  If he passes and awaits the Preakness, I suspect we'll see some major alterations to their pre-Derby training regimens, with fewer 2-mile gallops, and more high octane works geared to putting them into the race earlier.

One thing's for certain: with all the Clockers in our line-up, the best coverage of these ultra-critical "down" weeks leading-up to Derby figures to be right here.

C'mon Nick!

Octave-the-Rave

Sometimes my HD has a tendency to morph into slow motion on its own, and I swear I thought that was the case watching the stretch crawl of the Wooden Memorial.  How ‘bout these fractions: the last 3/8ths in :40.85, with the last 1/8^th in :13.87. 

If there's anyone still not convinced that War Pass, like Indian Blessing, can't be air-lifted a mile and a quarter, good luck in Pauper Village.  By comparison, Colonel John came home in :35.52, with a final 1/8^th in :12.06! 

But perhaps the most impressive run of all was by Risen Star's namesake Recapturetheglory.  His splits in the Illinois Derby were :24.1, :24.3, :24.2, :24.0, :12.0, for a final time of 1:49.01, and a final 3/8ths of :36 flat, with each of his final three splits faster than the previous.

However impressive, the 2008 Kentucky Derby just got infinitely more compelling.  In light of the fact that this is the 20^th anniversary of Risen Star's spectacular Triple Crown run, and that this is the first time since 1988 his owner/trainer Louie Roussel III, dubbed "Screwy Louie" by the Louisville media, and lounge lizard, bad singing co-owner/partner Ronnie LeMarque, are returning to the Derby since Risen Star, there's no doubt who the media darling, fan favorite, and sentimental choice for this year's Derby will be.

Rave

For the past year or so I've been experimenting with a software program I created that downloads the Beyer Speed Figures and comparative Speed Rating + Track Variant on weekends and holidays at major race meets around the country.  The reason I chose weekends and holidays is because as a general rule, the quality of racing is higher on these days.  The better the racing, the higher caliber of horses, and presumably the more accurate the figures.

What these figures have indicated to date is that there is absolutely no method to the madness of the Beyer Speed Figures in relation to their corresponding speed rating + track variant, except that the speed rating + track variant, as a whole number, is HIGHER than the Beyer Speed Figure approximately 98 PERCENT of the time.  How much lower the BSF is varies wildly from track to track, horse to horse, day to day, and even race to race, as you're about to discover v. the above captioned chart.

By way of explanation, column #1 above represents the average BSF for all races run by the subject Derby Future Pool #3 horse.  Column #2 is the average speed rating + track variant combined as a whole number for all races run by the same horse.  Column #3 is the percentage difference - the (+) indicating the always higher speed rating + track variant - derived by subtracting the BSF from the SR+TV, and dividing the difference by the SR+TV.  Using Z Fortune as an example, a simple way to check these figures is to take his average BSF of 87 and multiply it by 1.14.  The resulting figure is 99, thus the 14% difference.  Column #5 is the average percentage difference between the BSFs and the SR+TVs for all 18 horses, derived by adding all of the (+) percentages in Column #4, then dividing by 18, the total number of samples in the lot, to arrive at a mean or par figure expressed as a percentage - in this case 20%.  In other words, for the 18 horses listed in Derby Future Pool #3, the typical speed rating + track variant for all races exceeds the corresponding BSF by an average of 20 percent.

Column #6 indicates the (+/-) variance in relation to par.  For example, ADRIANO's figures are fully 15 points below par, while ATONED's are 19 points higher.  The single biggest difference on this whole chart is Tom Amoss' LIBERTY BULL, and frankly I couldn't even tell you where's he running next.

However, I'm about to find out!

Rave

Gentlemen, the title is NOT a command.  To the contrary, I have a favor to ask of you guys - for all of us on here -- and I just wanted to get your collective attention v. the request.

Let me preface the request by saying that I, for one, not only appreciate the time you guys take to keep us abreast of the critical a.m. activities at your subject venues, I already have begun using the info to augment my Stable Mail.  I suspect many others on here are doing the same.  As we get closer to the Derby, I further expect these reports to increase in volume, and I know they will increase in importance.  Ergo this request:

It would be hugely helpful if you found some way with which you were comfortable to SET-OFF the horse's names in your reports, an example of which follows:

"GAYEGO turned in a lazy half mile.  He was joined by a Pletcher trainee Behindatthebar at about the 3.5 furlong pole when Behindatthebar snuck up inside.  The duo was head and head at the top.  Behindatthebar edged clear of GAYEGO in the stretch and finished in front by a couple lengths.  GAYEGO was not asked to keep pace but I still would have liked to seen more interest in competing."

In the above example, the primary horse is in BOLD/ALL CAPS, and the secondary horse ... the workmate ... is in bold/lower case.  Just one example, and one way of many to do this.  For us horse players, it not only makes for much easier reading and more comprehensive note taking, but also much faster follow-up on the day one of these horses is entered when we need to go back and find what one of you guys had opined about him/her.

Thank you ... and keep those reports coming.

Rave