WITH APOLOGIES TO JACK BUCK ...

I don't believe what I just saw! 

Steven Crist's latest blog, that is!  Seems Mr. Crist was more impressed this past weekend with Take of Ekati than he was Colonel John.  In fact, he contends that ToE's 93 BSF was suspect compared to Colonel John's 95 because while Tale of Ekati "chased" unusually fast fractions, Colonel John closed from 9th into unusually slow fractions. 

What?  Excuse me?  Does that make a lick of sense to anyone? 

Granted, Mr. Crist is universally renowned for his East Coast bias, and his penchant for seeing every thing through Broadway binoculars.  But this borders on the inane.  For starters, ToE "chased" nothing.  He sat in the catbird seat with daylight behind War Pass and the Rabbit, and was fully four lengths behind War Pass when they turned for home.  Four lengths in arrears turning for home, to me, barely qualifies as stalking, much less "chasing."  And while he managed to make-up those four lengths and win, it was only because the horse in front of him was looking for a place to lie down!  ToE's "winning" final 3/8ths was a staggering 40.82!  Folks, conventional dirt racing surfaces can only get so slow.  They cannot magically turn to quicksand overnight, and those are quicksand fractions.

Meanwhile, Colonel John found himself behind eight other horses after a ¾ mile fraction of 1:11.3 on a track where the three "dirt" sprints on the same card registered two 1:07s and a 1:08 for the same distance.  At that and despite the fact that the two horses who loped 1-2 around the track early took off like rockets and virtually sprinted the final 3/8ths, he nonetheless managed to pass not just the six horses in front of him who also were sprinting, but also the two early loafers in a ridiculous final 3/8ths of :35 and not much change. Despite being blocked!

Look, I'm as East Coast biased as they come, but on Angel Dust I couldn't have put my name to something as obtuse and ridiculous as what Mr. Crist wrote, nor with a gun to my head could I find anything remotely rational to justify being "more impressed" with a horse who ran his final 3/8ths of a mile 28 lengths slower than another.

Could you?

I just don't think Mr. Crist has near the grasp on the game that most people just naturally take for granted, given his position, and this blog is just the latest example.

Octave-the-Rave

Donald Harris
onApril 8, 2008at9:30 PM

In total agreement . . . just from the eyeball test I think most horseplayers have to consider the Colonel John win more significant.
Enjoy reading your thoughts.
onApril 8, 2008at10:15 PM

Crist is much better when he talks about the best ways to piece together Pick 4's.
Papa Bear was not to be outdone by Baby Bear (Illman) that brewed up this bit of wisdom in the Formblog located just south of the Crist Blog:
"For some reason, the synthetic Beyers seem lighter than the ones earned on dirt. It could mean that the synthetic horses are weaker, or it may just be a reflection of the surface (slower pace, different rider tactics as they concentrate on finishing strongly)."
The "some reason" in actuallity: Beyers are worthless on synthetics.
onApril 9, 2008at8:32 AM

Years and countless research were poured into those speed figures by Andy Beyer. I am sure those numbers became an obsession with that man but when the opportunity arose for the Racing Form to purchase them he jumped at it. Not only would he make money from his figure but he wouldn’t have to spend countless hours deriving his formula and everything that goes into it. Now he has an entire staff do all his work and he gets paid for it. Let’s give the guy some credit here, he transcended handicapping. He is older now and I am sure if he exasperated as much time in his previous formula into a new one for synthetics he would figure out the problem but does a man who has to be close to sixty want to spend his golden years starting all over again, hell no. He would much rather hang in Florida and vacation with his wife. Let some other mathematician/borderline lunatic-genius worry about the damn number. Somebody is bound to figure the damn thing out. As far as Mr. Pick Six Crist goes… his tenure with the Racing Form is becoming almost comical. He needs to focus less on comparing Colonel John’s times and ToE and more on bringing the Form back to respectability again.
JeremyPlonk
onApril 9, 2008at11:42 AM

I'm still goosebumped from the visions of Kirk Gibson pulling the chainsaw rounding the bases!!!!
Relive it now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMe6y7i2I7g
And as for the notion that Tale of Ekati out-impressed Colonel John, remember these are the same New Yorkers who still think Kentucky's Pat Day is the only reason Easy Goer ever lost a race.

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