Wickedstyle

Churchill Downs

Northern Dancer Stakes - Race 8

Grade III

Purse $175,000

Distance : 1 1/16^th Mile

Recapturetheglory

Pyro

Tiz Now Tiz Then

Unbridled Vicar

My Pal Charlie

Visionaire

Texas Wildcatter

It may seem odd to read and/or write this, but I really enjoy these kinds of races during the three-year-old season. The horses have built up enough of a history to give some of these summer stakes an interesting combination of competitors or re-matches and, in my opinion, such is the case with the Northern Dancer Stakes.

The first aspect of this race that I find worthy of note, is that the Illinois Derby winner Recapturetheglory returns to the rail and in my opinion is the one the beat in this race. If he comes out of the gate clean I expect this little rail runner to be the early speed and make a run at going wire to wire. His 5^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby is encouraging that he likes the dirt at Churchill, and the distance should be in his favor.

Speaking of recapturing their glory, the odds on favorite Pyro has been anything but on fire as of late. I think it's okay to throw away his Kentucky Derby finish (8^th) due to the unique field involved, however his Bluegrass Stakes finish the race before that makes it two races in a row where Pyro finished out of the money. His morning odds right now sit at 7/5 and I think that's slightly over bet for a horse that really hasn't delivered since Mid March (in the Louisiana Derby).

The L.A. Derby also featured My Pal Charlie (2^nd place) and Unbridled Vicar (last / 9^th). After the L.A. Derby I thought My Pal Charlie was going to be a solid competitor amongst second tier horses, however his Lone Star Derby and Arkansas Derby finishes, primarily against 2^nd tier horses, were uninspiring back to back 5^th place endings.

Texas Wildcatter also competed in the Lone Star Derby and finished immediately behind My Pal Charlie (6^th). I'm beginning to believe that Texas Wildcatter's biggest claim to fame, a close second place finish against Visionaire in the fog and mud drenched Gotham Stakes, was a compete fluke for various reasons - and in general he appears to be, at best, the fifth best horse in this field.

Visionaire is another horse, similar to Pyro, seeking redemption in this race, following  disappointing KY Derby and Blue Grass Stakes finishes.

Tiz Now and Tiz Then along with Unbridled Vicar I think can finish strongly if a number of the above horses fail to run the races they're capable. Seeing how all of the above, with the possible exception of Recapturetheglory, have been running well below their potential as of late, either of these horses could be an interesting Tri-fecta addition. Personally I'd need something a little sweeter than 15-1.

I like Recapturetheglory to win, followed by Visionaire and Pyro. I think everything is in place for Recapturetheglory in this race, and I think he could win convincingly against this field...unless Pyro returns to his devastating self, however I'm hedging that Pyro needs a longer break than he's been given.

In addition to that I'm looking forward to seeing Curlin run in race 10, because it's always a pleasure to watch him run - and I find it hilarious that I've named my blog (Wickedstlye) after a turf horse, because I rarely follow the turf races with as much diligence.

At the end of last year I thought Wickedstyle would be along the lines of an El Gato Malo or Black Jack Bob and have a shot at running in the K.Y. Derby but not really stand much of a chance of winning it - (of course at that time I also thought War Pass was a lock for the KY Derby). So here's hoping my horse (Wickedstyle) does well in the Jefferson Cup Stakes - of course if he wins this weekend that means that I'm going to have to switch from the dirt to the turf....and if you think my dirt analyst leaves a lot to be desired just wait until you see what I've got to offer on the grass.

Belmont Recap

Da'Tara

Denis of Cork

DH - Anak Nakal

DH - Ready's Echo

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Macho Again, Tale of Ekati, Guadalcanal, Icabad Crane, Big Brown
Scratched: Casino Drive

On Sunday night I was trying to figure out what angle I would take on the odd finish to the Triple Crown Campaign (to me the Dead Heat for third place makes this race even more peculiar?).

I had already received condolences from co-workers, family and friends regarding Big Brown's disappointing finish and I appreciated (and still do) that they took the time out to talk to me about it, because getting people more interested in this sport is why Wickedstyle exists in the first place.

The more I thought about it last night, the more I realized that while I was certainly hoping that Big Brown would win the Triple Crown, or at least give his best effort - I was more disappointed this year that War Pass disappeared after the Tampa Bay Derby and beyond that, the injuries to Honey, Honey Honey and the passing away of Eight Belles meant much more to me than just another missed Triple Crown Bid.  The Belmont Stakes, proved to be just like any other sport where sometimes a perceived lesser talent outplays a better team. (If you look at the baseball standings you'll see the Tampa Bay Rays are 1.5 games out, while the Yankees are in last place....hey it happens).

However that brings me to my next point, it's regrettable that no one is really talking about the Belmont winner Da'Tara. I'll be the first one to say that out of the nine horses running in the Belmont I thought 7^th place was the best this horse could hope for, and as I was watching the race this was my general dialogue:

Da'Tara 1^st place ¼ mile - "This won't last long."

Da'Tara 1^st place ½  mile -  "Some poor sucker probably thinks he's got a winner!"

Da'Tara 1^st place 1 mile - "Yep, just a matter a time before this horse fades away"

Da'Tara 1^st place 1 ¼ mile - "Should be fading anytime now - Come on Big Brown"

Da'Tara 1^st place Stretch - "Where the hell is everybody!"

Da'Tara Wins Belmont Stakes - "Holy Crap."

So for those who don't know, here's the scoop - Da'Tara just happens to be related to none other than Undefeated Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew - so there was a little history at stake, I just had no idea the Slew prodigy would be anyone other than Casino Drive. A more savvy media would have blamed Big Brown's loss on the *Curse of the Slew!! Nothing makes sports more curious than a good curse, just ask the Red Sox or Cubs, and hey my reasoning is more interesting that what everyone is saying now which is...."They don't know why Big Brown lost".

But I digress, for future reference it may be important to note that Da'Tara's father is none other than Tiznow - you can take a look at his resume:

2000 Eclipse Champion Three Year Old Colt and Horse of the Year.
2001 Eclipse Champion Older Horse.
Only horse to win the Breeders' Cup Classic twice in Breeders' Cup history.
Highest earning Cal-bred.

Sire of 2005 Champion Juv. Filly Folklore in first crop

So while I can't help but feel a little down about Big Browns disappointing finish - the future looks bright on the Tiznow horizon.

Incidentally I had to add this photo of Big Brown -

I can't tell if he's sticking his tongue out because he's exhausted or mocking the fickle humans who won't give him the time of day less than 5 minutes after they were screaming his name earlier before the race. Perhaps the other lesson to learn here is that no matter how great you are, you can always have an off day, and you should just be thankful that someone loves you enough to give you a hug afterwards - yeah, yeah I know I'm coming on a little sugary here but deep down you know I'm right.

The one thing I'll add to the end of this campaign is that I think Big Brown's legacy will be viewed unfairly. He'll be remembered as a horse that couldn't finish - a Thoroughbred choke artist / or Bust if you will. He may go down as a horse whose trainer foolishly crowned him as a lock and he also may be labeled as a horse that had two of the easiest legs to win (the Preakness and Belmont) in several years and should have won the Triple Crown with ease.

However that's not how I'll remember this horse. Big Brown will always be the horse that shouldn't have won the Florida Derby or Kentucky Derby because of two impossible posts, and he won them both. He's also a horse that battled injury for most of the year, and it just seems to me they asked too much of this horse, and he couldn't repeat the impossible. Hate the trainer for running his mouth, hate the owner for going for the glory when perhaps he shouldn't have, but don't hate the horse for having a great season. Here's hoping I get to see him in person at the Breeder's Cup in October, and here's looking forward to seeing what Da'Tara's got in store for us next.

I'll still continue writing about the three year old season, but with the end of the Belmont it's also time to get a glimpse at the Two year olds. Don't know if he's any good but I believe Barbaro's brother should be racing relatively soon.

Video and Story to Follow:

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=32905

Belmont Stakes - Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park - Elmont, New York
Saturday June 7, 2008 - Approximate Post Time 6:25 PM E.T.
One mile and one-half, for three year olds
Purse: $1 million
TV: ABC 5 P.M. ET

Big Brown

Guadalcanal

Macho Again

Denis of Cork

Casino Drive

Da'Tara

Tale of Ekati

Anak Nakal

Ready's Echo

Icabad Crane

After some consideration it appears that this year's Belmont Stakes has a certain spirit of 1977, if you want the full experience turn on your volume and enjoy the music from youtube while reviewing the rest.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2Qi_KR8eCc

Why ‘77 you ask? Because, like Rocky, all year Big Brown has had to overcome the improbable to remain undefeated, including a victory from the 12^th spot in the Florida Derby, which experts said couldn't be done. He followed that up with a victory in the Kentucky Derby from the 20^th spot, a position only one other horse was able to win from in the Kentucky Derby's 134-year history. And if Big Brown wins this Saturday he will be the only other horse, along with 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, to remain undefeated and win the Triple Crown - which is rather remarkable considering horses like Secretariat, Whirlaway, and Citation couldn't do it.

However the Seattle Slew connection doesn't end there. You see, Big Brown's main competitor Casino Drive just happens to be the great grandson of Seattle Slew, so family honor is at stake and nothing is better than honour.

Seriously are you doing one-armed push-ups yet?

Before I write more regarding Big Brown and Casino Drive, let's take a look at the other competitors starting with 50-1 long shot Guadalcanal. Guadalcanal recently placed in a mile and ½ turf race, and the finishing time on that race was really unimpressive. However as a bettor, I think pairing Guadalcanal with Big Brown and/or Casino Drive in an exacta may well be worth the two dollars. Despite the fact that Guadalcanal is coming off the turf, has never even won a race, and certainly hasn't raced against this level of talent - he's the only horse who has experience at 1½ miles and the real competitor in the Belmont is the insane distance. In no way do I think Guadalcanal will win this thing, but if Casino Drive is over hyped, which I believe is very possible, and the rest of the horses begin to fade at a mile and ¼ Guadalcanal might have enough gas in his tank to finish a distant second, and that should earn a solid return.

Next to the long shot are Preakness Runner-up Macho Again, and Denis of Cork who finished third in the Kentucky Derby. Unless Big Brown comes out flat on Saturday, or stumbles at the gate, I don't think either of these horses have the stamina to beat him. However I believe both of these horses, along with Tale of Ekati (fourth in the K.Y. Derby) will battle it out for the Second - Fifth finishes.

I'm throwing out both Da'Tara and Anak Nakal, neither horse has won a major race and in most cases they've both finished well behind the winners in relatively weak fields. In general I think both of these horses would have been more competitive in the 9^th race on the Belmont card, the Woody Stephens Stakes, and even then I think J Be K would have beaten them.

Ready's Echo recently came in third place behind Casino Drive in the Peter Pan Stakes, and was making up ground towards the end of the 1 1/8 mile run. I doubt Ready's Echo could "shock the world" this Saturday with a win, but he may have the kind of stamina to earn a 3^rd place finish.

I believe Icabad Crane (also related to Seattle Slew and A.P. Indy) would have been better off in a race featuring a less talented field, and a more friendly distance. I think this horse has a lot of potential and personally I think the owners should have passed on the Belmont and taken on something a little less daunting (i.e. the Northern Dancer Stakes at Churchill next week). I hope he does relatively well but I'm concerned a probable eighth place finish at the Belmont could be a substantial set back for this horse.

That leaves us with just the main match-up of Big Brown vs. Casino Drive. The hype around Casino Drive is certainly intriguing, he is the half brother to both Belmont Stakes 2006 winner Jazil, and 2007 winner Rags to Riches (they all share the same mother Better than Honour). He was very successful racing in Japan before he won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park last month so, unlike Big Brown, Casino Drive has experience on this track already. However Big Brown has the one thing Casino Drive could need the most, and that is the jockey that both of these horses have shared: Kent Desormeaux. (Kent was on Casino Drive during the Peter Pan Stakes). Also, for those who don't know, despite the fact that Casino Drive is being called the "Japanese" colt, he was born in Kentucky.

That being said, despite Casino Drive's favorable breeding, I'm still not convinced he's of the same caliber that Jazil and Rags to Riches were. In 2006 Jazil had been a consistently strong late charging horse, his problem is he seems most suited for races over 1 1/8^th miles and those just don't come along very often. Rags to Riches was a Kentucky Oaks Champion and had dominated the 3 year old fillies that year. So while Casino Drive has the pedigree, I don't think he's got the resume of his family members.

Which leaves us finally with Big Brown. What can I say, this horse captivates me and I would love to witness a Triple Crown winner this Saturday, so you know where my heart is. I believe Big Brown's largest challenge will be the test of endurance of the 1 ½ mile run. If he can get out the gate without stumbling (which is what cost War Emblem the 2002 Triple Crown), and remain patient and reserve his strength (unlike Smarty Jones in 2004), and obviously if he can remain uninjured with his plastered hoof I think we'll see the thirty year drought of Triple Crown winners come to a fantastic finish this Saturday.

In conclusion, I like taking a flyer out on Guadalcanal in an exacta, but I like Big Brown, Tale of Ekati, and Casino Drive in that order with Big Brown several lengths ahead.

*Incidentally I know that Rocky was 1976, but his theme was still a top 100 song of 1977. I figured you'd prefer this to Tonight's the Night by Rod Stewart, or Dancing Queen by ABBA.

Ohio Derby - Recap

Smooth Air

Cherokee Artist

Z Fortune

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Medjool, Your Round, Instill, Celtic Meal and Stolen Chevy.

When I looked at the set-up for this race I believed Smooth Air would have some difficulty with the rail, and I also thought that his recent injuries might set him back a few lengths. As the race unfurled it was clear neither of those factors were going to come true. Smooth Air was clearly the superior animal - and he looked very at ease on the rail as he did for the duration of the race. Very solid outing, I'm curious how Smooth Air would stack up against Col. John or Pyro at this point in their careers.

On Thursday night I considered myself pretty clever for choosing a 12/1, relatively untested, horse to place in the Ohio Derby....well apparently this was far from an original idea, because at the bell he left the starting gate at 5/2! I think Cherokee Artist has a solid chance at improvement with a few more races under his saddle, and I'll certainly be curious to see if he runs in either the Iowa Derby or W.V. Derby.

I'm hoping this is the last time I "buy into" Z Fortune's phantom ability. I'm not necessarily disappointed that he finished 3^rd, but in a race like this one finishing six plus furlongs off the winner is difficult to write off. Maybe he needs rest, like until January.

Video and Story to follow:

http://www.ntra.com/video.aspx?id=32760

Ohio Derby - Thistledown - Race 9

Purse: $300,000

Distance: 1 1/8^th Miles

Post Time: 5:27 PM

Smooth Air

Medjool

Your Round

Instill

Stolen Chevy

Celtic Meal

Z Fortune

Cherokee Artist

I'll start off by stating that the Ohio, Iowa and West Virginia Derbies are some of my favorite races to follow.  These races usually draw reasonable talent and because many of the "big" names are still busy there usually isn't a clear cut favorite, making it enjoyable to watch and occasionally profitable to bet on.

The two horses sporting the best resumes are Smooth Air and Z Fortune, however both of them have suffered from repeatedly being the Bride's maid (or mare) and rarely being the Bride.

Smooth Air has had the great misfortune of running against Big Brown in his last two races, finishing 11^th in the Kentucky Derby, and 2^nd in the Florida Derby. While Z Fortune finished 10^th in the K.Y. Derby, and 2^nd in the Arkansas Derby, however he finished as far back as 5^th in a relatively weak Rebel Stakes.

Medjool is really the only other horse in this field that's faced substantial competition, however an 8^th place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, and a 3^rd place showing in the Lane's End isn't much to brag about.

Instill was a recent winner in the Milwaukee Avenue Handicap, however he failed to challenge in the Illinois Derby finishing 6^th against a pretty weak crowd.

Stolen Chevy recently won an Allowance race at 1 mile 70 yards at the Mountaineer Racetrack in West Virginia, and I suspect he's gearing up for the WV Derby.

Celtic Meal recently placed in the 6 Furlong Tall Ships Stakes.

And finally Cherokee Artist won his last race at 1 1/16 mile, coming from the outside post.

In conclusion I like Z Fortune to win, followed by Cherokee Artist, and Smooth Air for the show. I like the fact that Cherokee Artist is fresh off a victory and he'll be running from the outside post again - I just don't have the conviction to say he'll win it all, and on the other hand taking Z Fortune and Smooth Air 1-2 seemed a little on the boring side, because they will probably be the betting favorites that day.