Amateurcapper

The 2008 Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships are three weeks removed and it's becoming increasingly clear how huge horses on or near the lead ran that weekend. The championships were a microcosm for just how the Pro-ride main track played nearly all meeting long. In the right spots, those runners can be played with confidence.

For instance, Saturday at Hollywood Park ROGUE SCOLAR came a dirty nose short of taking the 2^nd in wire-to-wire fashion at $6.90-1 traveling the demanding 7f distance. Two starts back, he couldn't make the lead for $32k going 6f when the opening split was :21.80. That October 13 event may prove key as the winner, (3) WHEATON HALL, looks formidable in Sunday's 2^nd off a :58¹ bullet. He'll need to hold off past-classer and horse-for-course (5) RAMSGATE, but JOHN SADLER used that type of preparation to lead into that win from a stalking position in 2^nd. 8-5 favoritism gives me no edge so I'll watch WHEATON HALL today.

Furthermore, in Saturday's 7^th, a maiden special weight at 6f, 2^nd-starter BACK AT YOU posted a 7-1 upset. He went gate to wire coming off a 26Oct effort featuring a slow start (7^th) from the rail, rushed up to press the opening :22.03 ¼ mile split, and faded in his career debut at 42-1.

So, aside from WHEATON HALL, who else has my attention on Sunday?

(2) THANKFULLY in the 3^rd looks well spotted, but at 5-2 won't represent enough value. She stalked a fast winner last out and drops a level while going 2^nd-time for ART SHERMAN, who employs JOEL ROSARIO who gets the barn 30% wins. There is other confirmed speed entered which could compromise her best chance. Yet another I'll just watch.

In the 5^th, (7) RARE SPARKLE was a press/fade 5^th of 7 runners in the 3^rd on October 10. She broke 5^th, rushed up to be 2^nd by the ¼, held her position to the ½, then gave way. The winner WINNING RIDE, is being offered at 12-1 in today's 8^th, the Mocassin S. The 2^nd-finisher has already returned to win. At 6-1, with blinkers on, the former $350k yearling at the prestigious Keeneland September auction will be fair value. She should hold her price with RAFAEL BEJARANO jumping to the rail filly for BOB BAFFERT.  There was a time when DAVID FLORES was one of the best speed jockeys, he's more than capable here.  She'll be out in front and will have to hold off (4) SILENT STALK and (6) NAVIGATOR who both exit the same, fast 5 1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Oak Tree, their career debuts.

(3) RUSSIAN LIQUOR will be involved from start to finish at 4-1 in the 7th. The Victor Garcia (he's son of "KING JUAN" GARCIA and the apple didn't fall far or the tree's nearby) trainee was a speed/fade 3^rd at the level on October 4, then was a speed/fade 3^rd on the Tapeta Footings at GG last out 24 days ago. He retains excellent speed, getting the rare "breezing" designation while earning a bullet :34² on November 13. Whether he stalks (1) TENFOLD or clears, this gelding should be very tough to run down at 4-1. At this class level, speed kills. Besides, I was a tennis player and this guy's dam is named NAVRATILOVA. Game, set, match!

(1) MI CHIAMANO MIMI will be the target at 5-2 in the 8^th, the Mocassin S. at 7f. She's by far the fastest filly in the race and the stretch out to 7f should all her speed last longer. Notice the three slow works since she won...if they try to take her back, a very real possibility, she could be all revved up with nowhere to run down the lane. I'm going to use her to "save" over my value runners but am leary that the pace, as so often happens in juvenile races, will get out of hand. I'll try to boost her win payoff with 15-1, (7) MONTANA FIELDS. She went home to JERRY HOLLENDORFER's GG base and promptly cleared her N1x condition "handily". STARDOM BOUND's not here and PALACIO DE AMOR, 2^nd to the champion in two consecutive grade 1's including the BC Juvenile Fillies, could be a little sour after getting her head handed to her in three straight a fast race last out. Another intriguing filly is the Irish invader (6) PASA SILBANO, a two time "listed" stakes winner in Ireland who also is undefeated on Polytrack. The Breeders' Cup taught us to pay attention to these foreign horses in California.

When STARDOM BOUND made the races this summer at Del Mar, the $375k OBS two-year-old-in-training sales graduate had a name fit for a princess-to-be. Reportedly CHRISTOPHER PAASCH had been saving this name for some time, trying to fit it to the right horse. The trainer is reportedly getting out of the grind of being a conditioner in favor of a more leisurely career as bloodstock agent. STARDOM BOUND's story, which culminated in her sale for $5.7 million at the Fasig-Tipton select sale on Sunday, is not a bad piece to include on his resume when luring clients for his second career.

Paasch selected the multiple G.1 winner for his octogenarian owner CHARLES CONO in March and the not-yet-named-champion juvenile filly debuted just four months later. After a pair of fast-finishing 2^nd's to start her career just 17 days apart, she won the G.1 Del Mar Debutante to announce that STARDOM BOUND had achieved what her name and substantial backstretch buzz expected. She answered the two-turn question in the G.1 Oak Leaf stamping her as the filly to beat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. STARDOM BOUND did not disappoint her connections or the fans and horseplayers on thoroughbred racing's championship weekend.

In the span of a four month racing career, she'd recouped her purchase price and an extra $1,045,600. All told, CONO's investment along with PAASCH's eye for horseflesh and terrific training have produced a $6.745 million profit in 2008.

In honor of this fairy tale, I AM STARTING A CAMPAIGN FOR AN INAUGURAL ECLIPSE AWARD TO CHARLES CONO AND CHRISTOPHER PAASCH. The name for the award: THE STARDOM BOUND. The qualifications: An owner/ownership group and trainer who exemplify the finest characteristics of their peers while achieving success in the thoroughbred horse racing industry which will be measured by the highest gross profit relative to the horse in question during a calendar year. To qualify as an auction acquisition: the horse's statistics (purchase price, earnings and sales price) will only be considered for the calendar year of purchase (January 1 to December 31). To qualify as a private purchase: (purchase price, earnings and sales price), the horse's statistics will only be considered for the calendar year of purchase (see above). To qualify as a homebred: the horse's statistics (earnings and sales price) will only be considered for the calendar year (see above).

On a very large scale, this is the essence of what horse racing ownership and horsemanship is on a day-to-day basis. Open a racing form each race day and you will find multiple horses racing above the level of their purchase prices. At Hollywood Park on Sunday, trainer JAMES KASPAROFF made his ownership group CONVERGENCE STABLES, LLC $5,000 and the winner's share of a $22,000 purse when TAXI FLEET won the 7^th, a $25k claimer just 14 days after being claimed for $20k. The following race, 4y.o. filly TIZFIZ, finished a very game 2^nd at 11-1 to G.2 winner and even-money favorite JIBBOOM in a 2^nd level allowance (purse value $44,000) 29 days after being claimed for $50k. While not "out" yet, I believe her connections (RICHARD J. O'NEILL TRUST and trainer RAFAEL DeLEON) will never risk her for a tag again considering the breeding potential of the daughter of TIZNOW, out of a GO FOR GIN mare. In fact, she could have won with a cleaner trip and will be a short price in a similar spot in four weeks. It wouldn't be a stretch to see her with black type by the end of next year, selling for a nice profit as a broodmare prospect.

However, has any other horse been bought for so relatively little, achieved so much (monetarily and in graded stakes company) on the racetrack, then sold for a substantial profit in such a short time span as STARDOM BOUND???

There will be worthy recipients of the award every year, rewarding the highest achievers for reaching the pinnacle of what is the essence of the game:  TO MAKE A PROFIT. Their stories may not be equivalent to the one which started the award, but it signals those special connections who achieved their business goal to start the year, when they were dreaming of being STARDOM BOUND.

Please bear with me as I pay tribute to my leading lady of Breeders' Cup weekend, GOLDIKOVA. Apologies to the Monkees and more recently Smashmouth for bastardizing "I'M A BELIEVER" with my lyrics. If you try to sing along, say GOLDIKOVA, ZENYATTA and GODOLPHIN very fast:

GOLDIKOVA was only true in fairy tales
A single for everyone else and for me
Her turn of foot was dazzling, that's the way it seemed
Yet ZENYATTA haunted all my dreams

Then I singled GOLDIKOVA
Now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
I'm in love
I'm a believer
Couldn't leave her off if I tried

I thought "DAY ONE" was more or less a gimmick thing
Bet ZENYATTA, the payoff's ‘BOUND to be low
I needed GODOLPHIN, ZENYATTA gave me pain
Alive in my Pick 3 it went down the drain

Then I singled GOLDIKOVA
Now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
I'm in love
I'm a believer
Couldn't leave her off if I tried

I needed GODOLPHIN, ZENYATTA gave me pain
Alive in my Pick 3 it went down the drain

Then I singled GOLDIKOVA
Now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
I'm in love
I'm a believer
Couldn't leave her off if I tried

Then I singled GOLDIKOVA
Now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
I'm in love
I'm a believer
Couldn't leave her off if I tried,
Yeah yeah yeah
Yeah yeah yeah
Now I'm a believer...

I'd like to thank everyone who made this Breeders' Cup a winning one.
First off, FREDDIE HEAD and owners WERTHEIMER and FRERE for bringing such a marvelously prepared filly for me to build my Pick 3's around. Owners BRANDON and MARIANNE CHASE for having the foresight to switch Dirt Mile winner ALBERTUS MAXIMUS to Pam-wielding trainer VLADIMIR CERIN (he sprays his charges feet before every race with the non-stick aerosol). BOB BAFFERT for putting blinkers on MIDSHIPMAN, new for the Juvenile win. HER ROYAL HIGHNESS PRINCESS HAYA OF JORDAN for adding lady luck to my tickets with DONATIVUM's upset in the Juvenile Turf and with RAVEN'S PASS' thrilling Classic win (her husband Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum's GODOLPHIN silks weren't enough to get DIABOLICAL home for me in the Turf Sprint or COCOA BEACH and MUSIC NOTE in the Ladies‘ Classic on Friday). JOHN GOSDEN for his training of DONATIVUM and RAVEN'S PASS, and bringing back fond memories of BATES MOTEL. Lastly, I couldn't have done it without all the big-little people: GARRETT GOMEZ for being the best jockey in the World with brilliant rides on (MIDSHIPMAN) and off the pace (ALBERTUS MAXIMUS; he‘s one jockey I should just use blindly); FRANKIE DETTORI for being second-best among the top two jockeys in the World with his flawless rides on DONATIVUM and RAVEN'S PASS (I'm still a little bitter he got caught on DIABOLICAL in the Turf Sprint); and finally OLIVIER PESLIER for waiting so long to pull the trigger with GOLDIKOVA I thought PAT DAY had substituted for him.

Good luck on all your post-Breeders' Cup wagers.

(3) GALAYO makes his first career start in the 4th at Hollywood Park and is pegged at 5-1. This 2y.o. son of GIANT'S CAUSEWAY is better bred than his ½ siblings GIACOMO (by HOLY BULL, G.1 Kentucky Derby) and TIAGO (by PLEASANT TAP, most recently 3rd in BC Classic, multiple G.1 winner). His worktab is ordinary by most standards but were dealing with JOHN SHIRREFFS who lets his horses develop old-school style. This is the reason GALAYO debuts around two turns and he‘s catching a very questionable field.

Reading into this entrant with local knowledge of his over $2 million earning brothers, JERRY & ANN MOSS and SHIRREFFS are expecting Kentucky Derby-type potential from this colt. His development will mirror that of GIACOMO's, who finished 2nd in the G.1 Hollywood Futurity to that year's Juvenile Champion DECLAN'S MOON while defeating BC Juvenile upsetter WILKO. Long-fused GIACOMO struggled on dirt despite winning a pace-collapsing Kentucky Derby in slow time. TIAGO debuted at age 2 on opening day of the Santa Anita winter meeting in 2006. He looked all the winner that day in the 7f sprint on the old dirt track but lugged in badly losing his momentum and action allowing experienced favorite TENFOLD to win. I believe that both colts would have been even better on turf, but who can argue with their successes.

The blood of the NORTHERN DANCER sire line is introduced to SET THEM FREE via GIANT'S CAUSEWAY, a son of the great STORM CAT. This combination of stamina and class from the dam and precociousness and class from the sire bodes well for GALAYO's future. Does he have to win today? NO. Can he win today? YES...if he stays around the 5-1 morning line (4-1 at the lowest), there's enough value to take a shot that he outclasses this ordinary bunch on a track that he calls home.

Win or lose today, GALAYO is one to put on your horses to watch list going forward in the 2y.o. division. Whether you try to play him or defeat him going forward is dependent on your interpretation of this performance.

The Breeders' Cup Classic was a race for the ages, a true clash of the titans. If only BIG BROWN could have been healthy enough to join the party...

The race featured bids by nearly every compelling entrant. In the end, it was analysis of class and form cycle that won out.

First of all regarding CURLIN, North America's richest racehorse, many thanks to JESS JACKSON and STEVE ASMUSSEN for bringing him. He looked the picture of health despite a challenging two years of racing and you should both be commended for your sportsmanship. The big boy showed up, to he best of his ability at this stage of the year and his career. He got to the lead at the head of the stretch but the trip to Dubai finally took its toll and there were younger, fresher challengers from abroad down the stretch this time around. CURLIN was beaten by a 3y.o., like a younger, more resilient version of himself demolished the Classic field last year. The Dubai World Cup was the CURLIN camp's goal this year. Mission accomplished. He returned to race in the U.S. earlier than many expected to beat up on a very mediocre handicap division depleted by early retirement (STREET SENSE and HARD SPUN would have been fellow 4 y.o.'s, and BERNARDINI would have been a 5 y.o.). Don't diminish his year or career. CURLIN is truly one of the all-time great racehorses.

RAVEN'S PASS peaked at the right time and showed that a Euro miler on turf can get 1 ¼ miles on a flat course, over a synthetic main track. This was just his second G.1 win, taking the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot four weeks ago while notching his first win over HENRYTHENAVIGATOR. ELUSIVE QUALITY has now sired two sons who are enduring legacies to the sport. Anyone remember SMARTY JONES, one length from the TRIPLE CROWN??? It was great to see JOHN GOSDEN win the second of two Breeders' Cup races on the day where he was a fixture on the backstretch more than 20 years ago. I still remember mammoth BATES MOTEL thundering down the Santa Anita homestretch to win the 1983 Big ‘Cap en route to Champion Older Male honors. He was one of many Southern California handicap stars who bridged the gap in my horse racing education from AFFIRMED to the inaugural Breeders' Cup in 1984. Thanks for the memories (and two more winning wagers)! Does anyone think that RAVEN'S PASS will be back for round two next year, if he comes to it the right way???

HENRYTHENAVIGATOR was gallant in defeat and continued a subplot where the SHEIKH MOHAMMAD GODOLOPHIN/DARLEY juggernaut, this time with his wife HRH PRINCESS HAYA OF JORDAN as the lead owner, defeated MRS. JOHN MAGNIER part of the COOLMORE group from Ireland for the second time on the day. HENRY accomplished most of his connections' yearly goals in Europe. His terrific year, like CURLIN's accomplishments, were not unblemished but no less magnificent. Four straight G.1 wins to begin the year, final tally standing at 7-4-2-0 for over $2.1 million. If he never races again, his second career at stud for this son of KINGMAMBO out of G.1 winner and Irish Champion Juvenile Filly SEQUOYAH (by SADLER'S WELLS) is assured and his offspring will be much anticipated. I'd love to see HENRY return to take on RAVEN'S PASS in next year's renewal.

TIAGO taking 3^rd from CURLIN points out three things. First, it's so very important to have a race over the Pro-ride. TIAGO parlayed a late-running 2^nd in the G.1 Goodwood into a $500k payday pushing his yearly earnings over the $1 million mark for the second straight year. Second, CURLIN was not himself as TIAGO hadn't been closer than 5 ½ lengths to the defending HOY in his two prior races. And lastly, this ½ brother to GIACOMO is a trier. I would not be shocked to see the son of PLEASANT TAP stay in training for another shot at the CLASSIC at the OAK TREE MEETING at SANTA ANITA PARK at age 5, considered the peak of physical maturity in a racehorse.

When was the last time that the top three finishers in the BC Classic returned the following year? With Pro-ride and Santa Anita getting the Breeders' Cup in back-to-back years, it's most likely to happen in 2009.

COLONEL JOHN made a forward move in defeat. His wide run around the turn was reminiscent of the one he produced in the Kentucky Derby, this time from closer range and without a bad break. My blog's mascot hasn't been himself since the Kentucky Derby and won the G.1 Travers on class alone. WINSTAR FARMS and trainer EOIN HARTY have been handling the son of TIZNOW with kid gloves just to get him to the race. For that reason, no way did I want any of the 10-1 he went to post at with more accomplished runners at higher prices. I am going on record by saying COLONEL JOHN will be a monster next year as a 4 y.o., it's in his genes. There's no way we lose him to the breeding shed just yet. Despite being a multiple G.1 winner on synthetic and dirt, he still has much to prove before he starts dating. He reportedly gets very light between races and taking the next few months off for him to mature will be key. I see CJ being turned out on the farm for a month and going back into training some time in December. Look for him in the Strub S. in February as a prep for the Santa Anita H. His damsire TURKOMAN reached his peak on the track at age 4, when he was voted Champion Older Male. His sire won the 2^nd of his back-to-back BC Classics at age 4.

DUKE OF MARMALADE was the victim of a long, hard campaign and continued the downward trend in his form cycle that started with a dull 7^th in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. He ran like a horse that wanted to get the race over with so he could get back home. DUKE was classy enough to make the lead at the mile mark, but watching JOHN MURTAGH scrubbing for his life without a response everyone knew his result would not be fitting for such a wonderful horse. Fairly well played at 9-1, there was much respect for DUKE who'd started the year with a remarkable five straight G.1 wins. Watch out for little DUKEs running long on the grass in Europe in three years.

Unexpectedly, CASINO DRIVE was put on the lead setting fractions much faster than his prep race 13 days earlier. He just wasn't seasoned enough but went to post the co-fourth choice anyway. Writing this colt off for next year's Classic would be a big mistake if he can put a full campaign together. Does anyone think it's possible that his Japanese connections will leave him here a la FUSAO SEKIGUCHI with FUSAICHI PEGASUS to win the Kentucky Derby? COLONEL JOHN, CASINO DRIVE, and TIAGO to headline Santa Anita's handicap division in the upcoming winter meeting? Perchance to dream...